For decades, America has seen a decline in native-born births. Current population projections aren't enough to compensate for the accelerated mortality curve that will occur with the passing of the baby boomers. In many communities throughout the United States, the number of deaths exceeds the number of births as the boomer generation has moved past childbearing age and is coming into old age. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that by 2034, the nation, like many other countries, will have more senior citizens than kids.
The Center for Immigration Statistics found that, between 2008 and 2019, native births fell by 2.3 per thousand, while immigrant births fell by 7.1 per thousand. With recent crackdowns on immigration and an increase in life expectancy, many communities may soon have too few residents of childbearing age to replenish the workforce. These areas in the U.S. report either a stalled population growth rate, or a shrinking population and an overall increase in the average age of their residents. This leads to a reduced workforce, which in turn drives down tax revenues, hamstringing local and state governments' abilities to reinvest in communities and encourage migration. These factors reduce the workforce even further.
As times change, a community's makeup can change, too. The factors that can result in a county-level population decline are many, and some are more immediately impactful than others. The closing of a foundational industry can make an area less attractive—a town or string of towns that relies heavily on a manufacturing or automotive production facility for employment can become a ghost town when that facility shutters operations. A community that relies heavily on a single employer, such as a military base, will offer few high-paying, private sector jobs. And if an area is not drawing high-income workers, it may not have amenities that would be expected in more developed areas, such as gyms, coffee shops, parks, quality schools, and established or big-box retailers. These factors may make the choice between staying local and moving to a bigger market a painful but necessary one.
Looking at data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties in the United States from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021—which was released in March 2022—Stacker determined the counties in each state that have had the greatest drop in population by percentage. For this list, we considered counties and county-equivalents. For each state, the county with the greatest decline in population from 2010 to 2020 has been included. There is one caveat: the state of Delaware did not have a single county that showed a population decline; the only county that came close was New Castle County, which gained a little more than 23,000 residents during this time period. Delaware is thus absent from this list.
Each state has its growth regions, and each has its areas of decline. Read on to find out which counties across the country have been facing a shrinking population.
