5 key stats for a CFP National Champion and the 2 teams that fit this season
The college football landscape feels about as wide open as ever this season.
But, based on recent history, there are only two teams that have a shot to win it all when the College Football Playoff begins. SBD breaks it down.
As November began, three teams were in this group, but following a massive Week 10, only Georgia and UCLA fit the profile of the CFP finalists in the past five years. Notre Dame did fit prior to its win over then No. 1 Miami, but dropped off in a single category.
These teams are likely popular national title picks at the best apps to bet on college football or trade on sports with prediction markets like Novig and Polymarket.
Five Key Attributes of CFP National Title Contenders
While there has been quite a range of teams that have advanced to the national championship game in college football over the past five years, there are some shared qualities.
A common statistical profile includes:
- Allowing less than 15 points per game
- Holding a yards-per-play margin of +2 or more
- A net-success rate margin of 13.5% or better
- Disruptive defenses: Maintaining a positive turnover margin and defensive havoc rate of 15%-20%
- Having a play-calling identity that leans toward rushing
Statistics were pulled from Sportradar’s Radar360 platform. Every champion over the past five years fits within those ranges, while most finalists do, as well. Obvious outliers in some categories include TCU and Washington.
Teams That Can Win the National Title in 2027
This season’s national title race appears to be as wide open as any we’ve seen since 2007.
Ranked teams are falling left and right, including top 10 teams, as we are fully within a new era of the sport.
But whether it has been under the current 12-team format or the previous four-team playoff, each of the last five years has featured a champion within the above stat profile.
Here are the two teams and how they fit into each category. One of them came as no surprise, while the other is much more unlikely. There are also some notable omissions, including the No. 1 team in the country, and the team that just beat them.
Georgia Back on Top of Title Chase
Kirby Smart has his Bulldogs back among the national championship favorites. While Georgia never really left that perch, fully, its back-to-back quarterfinal exits have certainly been disappointments.
This year’s team, however, is elite by all the title contender measures.
Georgia has the country’s best yards-per-play margin among Power 4 teams at +3.14, and a 16.4% net success rate.
With an experienced quarterback in Gunner Stockton leading the offense, Georgia is out-scoring opponents by more than 26 points per game, as its defense slides just under the 15 points per game threshold (14) through eight games.
The Bulldogs are maintaining a 55.9% rushing rate on offense, which mirrors their 2021 and 2022 title teams.
UCLA Defense Leading Surprising Unbeaten Run
The Bruins are the only unbeaten team on this list of potential champions, but are getting the least love from traders and bookmakers.
UCLA had not been traded at higher than 3% on Kalshi until this week, when it jumped to 4%, and is still paying out at 35-to-1 at traditional sportsbooks.
But the defense has UCLA in the hunt, with a 17.6% havoc rate and a plus-15 turnover margin. Its defensive YPP is just 4.25, and its allowing 13.4 points per game.
The Bruins are not as efficient offensively as their counterparts, but they are holding their opponents to a 32.8% success rate, allowing them to get to 13.5% net success.
A major question mark, of course, is quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, who has stepped in for original starter Nico Iamaleava following his season-ending ACL injury. Dieffenbach has been solid for UCLA, which is all that is needed behind that defense and an offense that runs the ball 60.6% of the time.
The defense has yet to garner 2023 Michigan levels of praise or comparison, but that team does appear to be the most favorable comparison for this year’s Bruins.
How Did Notre Fall Off the Pace?
Notre Dame picked up the big win it needed in Week 10 against to convince the CFP Committee that it belongs, but the underlying numbers slipped enough in one category to knock them out of these ranks, at least for now.
The Irish dropped to a net success rate of 12.5%, likely due to a very good second half from the Miami offense. So, while every other stat puts the Irish on track for their first national title since 1988, Marcus Freeman’s team is balanced but does lean on its disruptive defense. The Irish have a plus-14 turnover margin through eight games, and a 15.4% defensive havoc rate.
Despite a good first half from BYU and a good second half from Miami, Notre Dame’s defense is still holding opponents to just 14.6 points per game.
Quarterback CJ Carr is among the favorites to win the Heisman, but the Irish still run the ball 52.6% of the time, with a habit of grinding down lesser opponents late in games.
Two Teams That Almost Fit the Full Profile
The nation’s top-ranked team heading into November, Miami, and defending national champion Indiana nearly fit the profile, but fell just short on opposite sides of the field, and remained there after Week 10.
Miami’s defensive scoring average is above 15 (20.8), while Indiana’s offense fails it and drops its net success rate below 13.5% (12.8%).
The Hurricanes have an elite offense behind quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Malachi Toney. They average 41 points per game, third in the country. They also have a +2.23 YPP average, and 13.6% net success rate.
Their defense is not creating nearly as much havoc as its counterparts, however, at just 11.6%. This is allowing offenses to operate with more comfort.
Still, Miami is trading at 10% on Kalshi, which is down to fourth nationally behind Georgia, Notre Dame and Alabama.
Indiana is trading at 9% on Kalshi, which is tied for fourth, thanks to a lights-out defense. The Hoosiers are allowing just 12.4 points per game, have a YPP edge of +2.84 thanks to allowing just 4.08, and a defensive havoc rate of 18.2%.
The offense, however, is simply not scoring and that is allowing lesser teams – like Michigan and Minnesota in the past two weeks – to hang around. Quarterback Josh Hoover has been inconsistent and banged up, leaving the offense inefficient. Their net success rate is so low despite a defensive success rate allowed of 31.1%.
This story was produced by SBD using Sportradar data and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
