Gun sales are plummeting. Here's why

Jonathan Metzl, who directs Vanderbilt University's Center for Medicine, Health, and Society, said heightened fear and uncertainty during the pandemic led both longtime gun owners and first-time buyers to stock up, fueling a level of demand that was destined to taper off.

"What we saw in 2020 and 2021 were not sustainable from a market standpoint," Metzl said. "But also, many more people have guns now, and so the market of potential consumers is a lot smaller than it was during the pandemic."

The downturn is likely to continue under President Donald Trump. Gun sales tend to fall when a Republican occupies the White House, as the specter of stricter gun control measures subsides. Gun sales fell 17% during the first three years of Trump's first term. 

Still, the market's trajectory could shift as a result of unexpected events or policy changes. Congressional Republicans are pushing a bill that would require states to honor concealed carry permits issued by other states. Known as national concealed carry reciprocity, it could boost gun sales by allowing permit holders to carry their firearms across state lines, even into states with stricter concealed carry laws. The bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate, where Democrats are likely to filibuster the measure.

Across the country, the drop in gun sales has been uneven. Washington state, for example, saw sales plummet 43% in December, compared to the same month the year before. It was the steepest drop of any state and helped push Washington's 2024 gun sales to their lowest level in 15 years.

Jeremy Ball, the owner of Sharp Shooting Indoor Range & Gun Shop in Spokane, attributed the slump, in part, to new rules passed by state lawmakers. Over the past two years, they have banned the sale of assault weapons and imposed a 10-day waiting period on other gun purchases, delaying when buyers can take their new weapons home.

"Have we felt that impact? Absolutely. That's been huge, and it's reflected in our number of employees," Ball said. "I'm happy to say that I've never laid anybody off during that time, but as people have voluntarily left us for other opportunities, we haven't replaced them."

But Ball believes inflation may be playing a larger role. 

"When you look at Washington state having the highest egg costs in the country right now—are you going to buy a gun, or are you going to eat?" Ball said. "That's a pretty simple decision."

Despite the downswing, Americans' appetite for firearms remains well above historic norms. Sales last year were still higher than in any pre-pandemic year except 2016 and 2013. And on the supply side, gunmakers produced 3 million more guns in 2023 than they did in 2019 and nearly 10 million more than at the turn of the century. Adjusting for population growth, firearm production has more than doubled in the past quarter century. 

There have been 500 million guns produced for the U.S. market since 1899. Accounting for the estimated number of firearms that fall out of circulation each year, there are likely more than 390 million guns in civilian hands.

There's still plenty of room in the market for new gun buyers. Polling from the Pew Research Center shows that a minority of Americans—just 42%—live in households with a firearm, and just 32% say they personally own one.

"The gun market, like any market, is always looking for new consumers," said Metzl, the Vanderbilt professor. "There are always going to be pockets of potential consumers who are always going to be targets."

The trends of gun deaths and injuries largely mirror those of gun availability, with firearm homicides spiking during the early years of the pandemic and falling significantly in the last two.

In some ways, having more guns circulating increases the opportunity for more gun violence. 

It's similar to playing the lottery, said Alexis Piquero, a sociology and criminology professor at the University of Miami and former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, a federal agency. 

"If I buy one ticket, my chances are small. If I buy 100 tickets, they're higher," Piquero said. "Similarly, if you put 100 more guns out there and put them in the hands of people going through difficult problems, you increase the likelihood of a bad outcome."

While homicides have declined, the millions of new guns purchased over the past five years may have a lasting effect on suicides, which make up the majority of gun deaths. Gun suicides hit an all-time high in 2023, the latest year for which federal data is available. The risk of suicide peaks shortly after someone buys a gun, but one study showed that 52% of suicides by firearm occurred more than a year after acquisition. 

"The suicide numbers have been worrying public epidemiologists for the last few years," Piquero said, "because those numbers are not going in the same direction as other numbers."