Given the above, and despite the relatively uniform and modest increases in credit card balances in 2024, there's no guarantee the same will occur in 2025. Changing consumer habits could very well result in a turning tide.
An example of newly altered consumer behavior can be found at your local McDonald's: In 2024, the hamburger giant reported that the number of sales made at its stores was lower than the previous year, a decline they expect to persist in 2025. At the same time, customers were spending more per order. In other words, as order costs went up, some consumers were priced out of the market.
If you carry the fast food example over to the broader economy, you'll see other examples of consumers pulling back from more expensive purchases—particularly in the supermarket. Even though inflation had largely been tamed in 2024, more consumers are trading down to less expensive versions of everyday purchases, according to a McKinsey analysis. This includes switching to supermarket private-label brands. That's especially true if the pricier purchases were previously being bought with the types of credit that are now seeing record-high rates.
How Might Credit Cards, and Credit Card Users, Change in 2025?
It's going to be difficult to set expectations for almost any economic issue as 2025 proceeds, and that's above and beyond the trickier forecasts around economic growth, stock prices and bond yields. Even the direction of short-term interest rates, which have been telegraphed by the Federal Reserve for a number of years, could move in either direction in 2025. Renewed inflation may mean rate increases, while a flagging economy could mean additional rate cuts.
But aside from interest rate mysteries, other factors are in play this year:
- APR fatigue: Looking back to 15 years ago, 23% APR was more commonly seen as a rate that consumers just starting out or rebuilding credit would receive. But in 2024, it was the norm, according to Federal Reserve data. That trend will seemingly continue in 2025 as well, despite a 1 percentage point reduction of many credit card APR rates in recent months.
- Tapped-out consumers: According to Moody's analytics, a leading macroeconomic observer, some U.S. consumers are presently "tapped out" from further consumer spending. In other words: Consumers, particularly those with annual incomes below $50,000, will be cutting back on discretionary spending they may currently be financing with a credit card. And while reduced credit card spending could give consumers some breathing room, high APRs will continue to add interest on top of any lingering balances.
- More buy now, pay later (BNPL): To avoid 20% and higher APRs, more consumers are indulging the occasional splurge with interest-free financing. BNPL has become a secondary form of alternative credit for consumers that isn't likely to go away in 2025.
Methodology: The analysis results provided are based on an Experian-created statistically relevant aggregate sampling of our consumer credit database that may include use of the FICO® Score 8 version. Different sampling parameters may generate different findings compared with other similar analysis. Analyzed credit data did not contain personal identification information. Metro areas group counties and cities into specific geographic areas for population censuses and compilations of related statistical data.