Experian 2024 consumer credit review

Credit scores remained broadly stable for most consumers in 2024. As of Q3, the average FICO® Score in the U.S. was 715, unchanged from the same period in 2023.

Meanwhile, average total debt balances increased by just $841 to $105,056 in 2024. This 0.8% increase in total debt balance was less than the rate of inflation over the past year, which grew by 2.4%.

The perhaps more eye-catching stat is the reduction in non-mortgage debt, which declined by 6.7% in the 12-month period ending Q3 2024. The decrease is largely attributable to declines in student debt, which remains the largest non-mortgage balance, on average, for those with that type of loan. Some of those balances over the past year have been completely canceled, while others were paid off by borrowers by the time student loan payments resumed in late 2023.

And although average non-mortgage debt has declined, by other measures it's clear that many consumers are enduring greater burdens repaying their debt each month, based on sharply increasing average monthly payments.

This marks a 5.2% annual increase in the average amount consumers need to satisfy their credit card statements, auto loans, student loans and other types of borrowing. The increases in these loan service payments may account for continued negative sentiment among some consumers throughout 2024.

In recent years, most types of debt have moved in lockstep, with all types of debt either increasing or—occasionally—decreasing from one year to the next. If anything, 2024 is noteworthy for a divergence in debt burdens by type, with some debts growing in size, while others shrinking.

On the increases side of the ledger: Credit card, auto loan and mortgage debt balances increased in 2024. The average balances of most types of debt increased at more or less the rate as inflation, which had decreased to 2.4% by September 2024.

Home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs—the one outlier versus inflation—increased by 7.2%, a testament to the increased demand for refinancing. As home equity has collectively increased to more than $30 trillion for U.S. homeowners, so too has borrowing against home equity.

The loans that comprise the bulk of consumer balances—mortgages and student loans—typically have much lower APRs than those of credit cards. In the coming weeks, Experian will publish more detailed reports on each of these types of credit, but to quickly summarize each, here are the changes to average loan and credit card balances in 2024:

• Credit card balances grew 3.5% to $6,730 in the 12 months from Q3 2023 to Q3 2024, a much slower increase than the 10% jump this category saw in the year prior.
• Personal loan balances fell slightly, to $19,014, after rising for several years prior, although originations for new personal loans remained stable in 2024.
• Auto loan balances grew 2.1% in 2024, to $24,297, as more consumers began to climb into more expensive vehicles, while paying more in interest for the privilege.
• Mortgage balances climbed 3.3% in 2024 to $252,505. Despite average monthly payments for new mortgages skyrocketing since interest rates began climbing in 2022, most mortgages currently being repaid are subject to much lower fixed rates than the 6% and higher mortgage rates prevailing for much of 2023.
• HELOC balances increased by 7.2% in 2024, to $45,157. For years, HELOC balances were in decline, as consumers (and lenders) preferred using cash-out refinances to extract equity from their homes. With mortgage rates significantly higher now, however, cash-out refinances are a non-starter for most consumers. HELOCs remain an appealing alternative way for consumers to tap their home equity.
• Student loan balances declined by 9.2% in 2024, on average, to $35,208. Student debt has decreased by more than $150 billion since the pandemic due to federal loan forgiveness programs and loan payoff by borrowers who continued paying their student loans during the payment pause.

Looking at interest rate trends for the three most common types of consumer debt—credit cards, auto loans and mortgages—it's easy to understand why many U.S. consumers consider themselves under increasing financial stress, even as broader economic conditions appear relatively rosy.

Credit card balances continued to rise, as average credit card interest rates continued to float upward slightly, even after the Federal Reserve stopped increasing the key federal funds rate in 2023. The average APR of 23.37%, according to the Fed, is a record high for credit card interest rates going back to the beginning of the century.

The 2024 increase in total debt levels per consumer was only slightly higher than 2023, by 0.8% to $105,056, among all U.S. consumers. But those increases weren't evenly distributed geographically. Generally, most states in the Western U.S. and the densely populated Northeast corridor saw higher increases in average total debt balances.

In the 50 states and Washington, D.C., credit score changes in 2024 followed one of three outcomes: The average FICO® Score either increased by one point, decreased by one point or remained unchanged.

While it's difficult to infer anything from this data other than observing little has changed on the credit score front since 2023, there are some patterns to be seen. It is notable that scores increased (slightly) in two states currently experiencing significant in-migration, South Carolina and Tennessee. In-migration in recent years has typically consisted of homeowners, or would-be homeowners, seeking greener and less expensive pastures in other states.

For example, in prior years, it's been Idaho, a destination for some Californians with the creditworthiness to purchase a home—just not at California prices. For perhaps different reasons, South Carolina and Tennessee are also experiencing population growth from other areas or the nation. But what's similar is that both migrant populations generally had the resources to relocate, including a good credit score to finance a home purchase.

Credit utilization, which measures credit usage on revolving accounts, including credit cards, HELOCs and other credit lines, remained steady at 30% in 2024, as some consumers managed increased interest rates by slowing their credit card spending.

The credit utilization average of 30% is essentially the limit many credit experts suggest consumers stay under to reduce damage to their credit scores. Nonetheless, a broader increase in prices—inflation is still hovering closer to 3%, as opposed to under 2% for most of the 2010s—as well as much higher APRs did continue to swell average balances.

However, since credit card utilization remains unchanged, we can infer that at least some borrowers are receiving additional credit from card issuers and other lenders, which grows both the numerator (average credit card balance) and the denominator (average credit utilization).

Similarly, delinquency rates appear to have plateaued. As of Q3 2024, 2.01% of accounts were at least 30 days past due, as was the case in 2023; the slightest of changes were observed in more delinquent debts of 60 and 90 or more days past due. Consumers remain largely resilient, though doubts remain for how long.

As 2025 unfolds, it appears pretty much everyone—including lenders, borrowers, consumers and retailers—is taking a wait-and-see approach before committing to lending, borrowing, purchasing and selling decisions. One thing appears certain, however: Despite some relief in slowing inflation and lower rates, consumers are still in need of some relief in borrowing and spending costs.

Even if it was known for certain where rates directly controlled by the Federal Reserve are headed, there's no guarantee that any additional rate cuts will mean lower mortgage rates for consumers, as the end of 2024 illustrated. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting the target fed funds rate from 5.5% to 4.5%, mortgage rates continued to increase. Nor have credit card borrowers carrying balances noticed much relief in slightly lower APRs that are still above 20% for many cardholders.

Unlike most other years, few financial observers are hazarding even a guess as to whether consumer loan rates, inflation and lenders' willingness to extend credit to consumers will increase or decrease in 2025. The new administration in Washington has suggested that changes in tax policy are coming, although details aren't yet apparent.

Looking first at the possibility that lenders may be more reluctant to lend in 2025: "Consumer bankers keep track of credit delinquency metrics. Those are higher now than before the pandemic—especially for car loans and credit cards," according to Jim Bander, data scientist for Experian Data Analytics.

But Bander reminds us to zoom out and compare delinquency levels to years past. "During the remarkably strong economy of 2006 to 2007, credit card delinquencies were close to 4%," he notes. "There's some irony that many lenders are concerned today because delinquencies have risen to around 3.25%."