These states make the smartest sports picks, according to PrizePicks data
Sports innately drive intense competition, leading to the constant desire to win. Perhaps that’s cheering on your favorite team or your latest sports predictions.
Over the last year, hundreds of millions of player picks revealed which states actually know their sports — and the answers aren't always obvious. Does Minnesota's hockey culture translate to smarter picks? Do Dodger fans know baseball, or is their team just running hot? Does Indiana — the home of basketball — really know ball?
PrizePicks data has provided the ultimate proof of which states have the smartest sports fans, with a list of the top states in win rate on their predictions via PrizePicks’ daily fantasy sports game. Data was pulled from Feb. 24, 2025, to Feb. 24, 2026, for all sports and each professional sports league, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.
Which states proved they know ball this year? Let’s dig into the numbers for all sports and each league to find which states are the smartest.
The States Making The Smartest Sports Picks
Before diving into the numbers of which states are making the smartest sports picks, it’s vital to explain the process for the “smartest states.” After pulling data over the last year, PrizePicks corrected for sample size differences by applying a statistical adjustment that pulls small-state win rates toward the national average.
The numbers boil down to genuine skill, not a hot streak in a small sample size, to determine the smartest states.
5 States with the Highest Pick Win Rates
Here are the five states with the highest Bayesian-adjusted win rates on single picks from Feb. 24, 2025, to Feb. 24, 2026.
1. Illinois
2. Indiana
3. Kansas
T-4. Florida
T-4. Tennessee
The Midwest did most of the heavy lifting, with Illinois, Indiana, and Kansas boasting the highest adjusted win rates for player picks, followed by Florida and Tennessee in the South.
In short, Illinois and Indiana found most of their success thanks to basketball and baseball, while Kansas thrived in NFL and MLB picks. Florida and Tennessee showcased high success across several sports, but they do not match some of the dominant win rates from Illinois and Indiana.
Below is an in-depth look at the highest win rates for the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL picks.
Among the top five highest win rates, Florida had the highest market share (or total volume of picks), the fourth-highest volume among all 32 states. For context, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, and Tennessee all finished far behind Florida’s total market share.
5 States with Highest Lineup Win Rates on PrizePicks
Although some of these states didn’t get the most picks right, they did cash the highest rate of Lineups — which are awarded when players hit on at least two picks — based on adjustments.
- California
- Utah
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
California tops the charts as the state cashing the highest adjusted percentage of Lineups. The Golden State ranked top three in NBA, MLB, and NHL win rates, including leading all states in NHL win rate.
Utah comes in second with adjusted win-rate, and also has the third-highest win rate pre-adjustments — the only state that placed over 1 million Lineups to hit that mark. Utah cashed the highest percentage of Lineups in NBA, and ranked second in NHL.
Interestingly, Utah had the third-lowest pick win rate in NFL, but ranked fifth highest in Lineup win rate — likely pointing to a higher volume of lower-pick Lineups with a higher implied probability of cashing.
Illinois led the United States in NFL ball knowledge, with the highest adjusted win rate across all NFL Lineups. Minnesota’s strong suit was MLB (first) and NBA (third).
5 States with Lowest Pick Win Rates
The margin between a “winning” state and “losing” one is relatively small — less than 1.5%. Not all states fell on the winning end, as six states stand out with the five lowest win rates, including a tie for the fifth-lowest win rate.
1. South Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arkansas
4. Wisconsin
T-5. Rhode Island
T-5. Missouri
Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Missouri all posted similar market shares to the top five highest win rates — so it’s not a sample size issue.
Despite a minuscule volume from Rhode Island, it still managed to finish in the bottom five win rates — perhaps leaving an even larger sting for the state’s morale.
High volumes may have harmed South Carolina’s and Georgia’s win rates. In fact, Georgia was third in overall pick volume, while South Carolina ranked fifth in the category.
NFL Ball-Knowledge is Nationwide, But North Carolina is No. 1
Now, let’s move our attention to the highest win rates on picks by leagues, beginning with the country’s most popular sports league: the NFL. Here are the top five states in NFL ball knowledge:
1. North Carolina
2. New Mexico
3. Florida
4. Kansas
T-5. Tennessee
T-5. California
Looking for regional trends by sport can be one of the most interesting tidbits from this data. However, we aren’t getting that from the NFL. The top five states truly come from sea to shining sea, from Florida to California.
California, Florida, and North Carolina had the highest NFL market share of all picks among the six mentioned states.
Despite not making it on the list for picks, Illinois was No. 1 in Lineup win rate, followed by Wisconsin and Indiana.
South Carolina, Georgia, Utah, Minnesota, and Texas finished with the five lowest NFL picks win rates, with Georgia ranked last in adjusted Lineup win rate.
The States Where Basketball Knowledge Runs Deep
Unlike the NFL, the NBA picks rankings by state on PrizePicks featured a specific region for the top win rates.
1. Indiana
2. Illinois
T-3. Florida
T-3. Tennessee
5. Kentucky
Most of these states go hand-in-hand with major basketball programs, whether it’s the NBA or college basketball. For example, Indiana has always been known as a basketball state, led by the Indiana Hoosiers, Purdue Boilermakers, and Indiana Pacers.
Illinois features the Chicago Bulls, while Florida certainly has a winning culture between the Miami Heat and Florida Gators. Of course, Tennessee and Kentucky have diehard fan bases for the Tennessee Volunteers, Kentucky Wildcats, and Louisville Cardinals.
However, when it came to Lineups, Utah and California led the way in adjusted Lineup win rate.
In SEC country, South Carolina, Georgia, and Arkansas formed the bottom three win rates for their NBA picks. In terms of Lineups, you can add Missouri to the list, which ranked last out of the 32 eligible states.
Florida, Illinois, and Indiana Are Home to the Smartest MLB Fans
The smartest states in the NFL and NBA continued to thrive with their MLB picks.
1. Florida
2. Illinois
3. Indiana
4. California
T-5. Tennessee
T-5. Kansas
Despite tying in the top five win rate rankings across other categories, among 32 states, Florida boasts the top win rate on their picks for two major sports, including MLB.
As one of seven states with two MLB teams, the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins, Florida had the fourth-highest market share for MLB picks. For reference, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kansas finished far behind Florida in volume.
Despite that, Florida may have been swinging for the fences with their Lineups, ranking just 22nd in adjusted Lineup win rate; Minnesota, Oregon, and California were tops in that category.
However, California led MLB market share across all states, as it’s built a reputation as a baseball state, with its year-round warm weather and massive Dodger fanbase.
The Smartest NHL Fans Live in Florida and Minnesota
Rounding out the four major league sports, let’s look at the biggest winners for NHL picks.
1. Florida
2. Minnesota
3. New Hampshire
T-4. District of Columbia
T-4. Tennessee
Florida makes its second appearance as the top winner for a sport. Florida's hockey culture has exploded in recent years — the Panthers have back-to-back Stanley Cups, and the Lightning went back-to-back in 2020 and 2021. Four titles in five years has a way of sharpening fan knowledge.
The Sunshine State’s No. 1 NHL pick win rate, paired with the fourth-highest market share for NHL picks, suggests Florida may have become a hockey state in the post-LeBron James era.
Minnesota lived up to its name as a hockey state, finishing second in pick win rate with the sixth-highest volume.
Excluding Florida, the remaining top five winners are no strangers to a brutal winter — sitting in line with hockey stereotypes.
However, the highest percentage of winning NHL Lineups came from California — and by a wide margin, even with a higher market share than any other state. Texas also knows hockey, ranking fourth in overall Lineup win rate.
This story was produced by PrizePicks and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
