How Arizona has voted in every presidential election since 1976
How Arizona has voted in every presidential election since 1976
It is often said that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. When it comes to elections, that is true—but it's not true often enough that we know what to expect at the ballot box.
Stacker takes a look at how Arizona voted in each election since 1976, according to data from MIT Election Data and Science Lab.
States like Hawaii and Rhode Island have been Democratic strongholds for decades, Massachusetts has been voting steadily blue since 1960, and Washington D.C. has never backed a Republican candidate.
On the other side of the political aisle, Alaska has voted Republican in every election but one. Idaho, Kentucky, and Indiana have been Republican for generations, while Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming have been voting red nearly every chance they can.
Southern states have been moving as a powerful block for ages, voting Democratic from the Reconstruction after the Civil War until the 1960s, when Southerners opposed civil rights legislation. The Republican Party stepped in with what's known as its Southern strategy to woo those votes, adding an emphasis on the traditional nuclear family, traditional roles for women, and evangelical religion to simmering racial issues.
1976
Arizona
- #1. Gerald Ford (Republican): 56.4% of votes (16.6% margin of victory)
- #2. Jimmy Carter (Democrat): 39.8%
- #3. Eugene McCarthy (Independent): 2.6%
- #4. Roger Macbride (Libertarian): 1.0%
National
- #1. Jimmy Carter (Democrat): 50.1% of votes (297/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Gerald Ford (Republican): 48.0%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Oregon (+0.2% Gerald Ford), Ohio (+0.2% Jimmy Carter), Maine (+0.8% Gerald Ford)
1980
Arizona
- #1. Ronald Reagan (Republican): 60.6% of votes (32.4% margin of victory)
- #2. Jimmy Carter (Democrat): 28.2%
- #3. John B. Anderson (Independent): 8.8%
- #4. Edward ""Ed"" Clark (Libertarian): 2.1%
National
- #1. Ronald Reagan (Republican): 50.8% of votes (489/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Jimmy Carter (Democrat): 41.0%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Massachusetts (+0.2% Ronald Reagan), Tennessee (+0.3% Ronald Reagan), Arkansas (+0.6% Ronald Reagan)
1984
Arizona
- #1. Ronald Reagan (Republican): 66.4% of votes (33.9% margin of victory)
- #2. Walter Mondale (Democrat): 32.5%
- #3. David Bergland (Libertarian): 1.0%
National
- #1. Ronald Reagan (Republican): 58.8% of votes (525/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Walter Mondale (Democrat): 40.6%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Minnesota (+0.2% Walter Mondale), Massachusetts (+2.8% Ronald Reagan), Rhode Island (+3.6% Ronald Reagan)
1988
Arizona
- #1. George H.W. Bush (Republican): 60.0% of votes (21.2% margin of victory)
- #2. Michael Dukakis (Democrat): 38.7%
- #3. Ron Paul (Libertarian): 1.1%
- #4. Lenora Fulani (New Alliance): 0.1%
National
- #1. George H. W. Bush (Republican): 53.4% of votes (426/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Michael Dukakis (Democrat): 45.7%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Washington (+1.6% Michael Dukakis), Illinois (+2.1% George H.W. Bush), Pennsylvania (+2.3% George H.W. Bush)
1992
Arizona
- #1. George H.W. Bush (Republican): 38.5% of votes (2.0% margin of victory)
- #2. Bill Clinton (Democrat): 36.5%
- #3. Ross Perot (Independent): 23.8%
- #4. James ""Bo"" Gritz (Independent): 0.5%
National
- #1. Bill Clinton (Democrat): 43.0% of votes (370/538 electoral votes)
- #2. George H. W. Bush (Republican): 37.5%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Georgia (+0.6% Bill Clinton), North Carolina (+0.8% George H.W. Bush), New Hampshire (+1.2% Bill Clinton)
1996
Arizona
- #1. Bill Clinton (Democrat): 46.5% of votes (2.2% margin of victory)
- #2. Robert Dole (Republican): 44.3%
- #3. Ross Perot (Reform Party): 8.0%
- #4. Harry Browne (Libertarian): 1.0%
National
- #1. Bill Clinton (Democrat): 49.2% of votes (379/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Bob Dole (Republican): 40.7%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Kentucky (+1.0% Bill Clinton), Nevada (+1.0% Bill Clinton), Georgia (+1.2% Robert Dole)
2000
Arizona
- #1. George W. Bush (Republican): 51.0% of votes (6.3% margin of victory)
- #2. Al Gore (Democrat): 44.7%
- #3. Ralph Nader (Green): 3.0%
- #4. Patrick ""Pat"" Buchanan (Reform Party): 0.8%
National
- #1. George W. Bush (Republican): 47.9% of votes (271/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Al Gore (Democrat): 48.4%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Florida (+0.0% George W. Bush), New Mexico (+0.1% Al Gore), Wisconsin (+0.2% Al Gore)
2004
Arizona
- #1. George W. Bush (Republican): 54.9% of votes (10.5% margin of victory)
- #2. John Kerry (Democrat): 44.4%
- #3. Michael Badnarik (Libertarian): 0.6%
National
- #1. George W. Bush (Republican): 50.7% of votes (286/538 electoral votes)
- #2. John Kerry (Democrat): 48.3%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Wisconsin (+0.4% John Kerry), Iowa (+0.7% George W. Bush), New Mexico (+0.8% George W. Bush)
2008
Arizona
- #1. John Mccain (Republican): 53.6% of votes (8.5% margin of victory)
- #2. Barack Obama (Democrat): 45.1%
- #3. Bob Barr (Libertarian): 0.5%
- #4. Ralph Nader (Independent): 0.5%
National
- #1. Barack Obama (Democrat): 52.9% of votes (365/538 electoral votes)
- #2. John McCain (Republican): 45.7%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Missouri (+0.1% John Mccain), North Carolina (+0.3% Barack Obama), Indiana (+1.0% Barack Obama)
2012
Arizona
- #1. Mitt Romney (Republican): 53.7% of votes (9.1% margin of victory)
- #2. Barack Obama (Democrat): 44.6%
- #3. Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 1.4%
- #4. Jill Stein (Green): 0.3%
National
- #1. Barack Obama (Democrat): 51.1% of votes (332/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Mitt Romney (Republican): 47.2%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Florida (+0.9% Barack Obama), North Carolina (+2.0% Mitt Romney), Ohio (+3.0% Barack Obama)
2016
Arizona
- #1. Donald Trump (Republican): 48.7% of votes (3.5% margin of victory)
- #2. Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 45.1%
- #3. Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 4.1%
- #4. Jill Stein (Green): 1.3%
National
- #1. Donald Trump (Republican): 46.1% of votes (304/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 48.2%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Michigan (+0.2% Donald Trump), New Hampshire (+0.4% Hillary Clinton), Pennsylvania (+0.7% Donald Trump)
2020
Arizona
- #1. Joe Biden (Democrat): 49.4% of votes (0.3% margin of victory)
- #2. Donald Trump (Republican): 49.1%
- #3. Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian): 1.5%
- #4. Howie Hawkins (Green): 0.0%
National
- #1. Joe Biden (Democrat): 51.3% of votes (306/538 electoral votes)
- #2. Donald Trump (Republican): 46.9%
- States with smallest margin of victory: Georgia (+0.2% Joe Biden), Arizona (+0.3% Joe Biden), Wisconsin (+0.6% Joe Biden)
