Best draft picks in Tampa Bay Rays history

The Major League Baseball draft is unique among professional sports drafts. The 30 organizations pick teenagers and college students who will not join their big league clubs for years—if ever.

These athletes will spend that time honing their craft in the minor leagues, where long bus rides and minuscule paychecks are the norm. A few will move quickly up the ranks, seizing playing time opportunities to advance their careers and making their names known to scouts, fans, and other observers around the country.

Some of the best will become MLB stars, but there's minimal correlation to draft position. Four of the best draft picks nationally were picked after hundreds of other diamond darlings, and only two were #1 overall selections.

There's also more than a handful who didn't do much for the teams that drafted them, including superstars such as Nolan Ryan, Ozzie Smith, and Randy Johnson. Each of these players was traded before they evolved into Hall of Famers.

Still, calling the draft a "crapshoot" might be going too far. College players are "slightly more likely" than high schoolers to reach the revered stadiums of the majors, and third-rounders have a better chance than fifth-rounders, for example, though the margins are slim, as Vice reported. Teams not only make picks based on years-in-advance projections but also whether they can sign players, a step that must be completed before those youngsters begin playing professionally.

To see how clubs have fared since the inaugural draft in 1965, ATS.io compiled a list of the best draft picks in Tampa Bay Rays history using data from Baseball Reference. The players were ranked using career wins above replacement, so not one recent choice was named. Unsigned picks were not considered, and players who were traded as picks were credited to their acquiring teams. Data is as of June 5, 2024.

#25. Jake McGee (tie)
- Draft: 135th overall pick in 2004
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 650
- Career stats: 32 wins, 3.71 earned run average, 1.15 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 7.1

#24. Joe Kennedy
- Draft: 252nd overall pick in 1998
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 222
- Career stats: 43 wins, 4.79 earned run average, 1.47 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 7.4

#23. Dan Wheeler
- Draft: 1024th overall pick in 1996
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 589
- Career stats: 25 wins, 3.98 earned run average, 1.22 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 7.8

#22. Matt Moore
- Draft: 245th overall pick in 2007
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 343
- Career stats: 68 wins, 4.38 earned run average, 1.39 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 8.4

#21. Shane McClanahan
- Draft: 31st overall pick in 2018
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 74
- Career stats: 33 wins, 3.02 earned run average, 1.10 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 8.7

#20. Nathaniel Lowe
- Draft: 390th overall pick in 2016
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 586
- Career stats: 75 home runs, .272 batting average, .790 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 9.3

#19. Rocco Baldelli
- Draft: 6th overall pick in 2000
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 519
- Career stats: 60 home runs, .278 batting average, .766 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 10.2

#18. Wade Davis
- Draft: 75th overall pick in 2004
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 557
- Career stats: 63 wins, 3.94 earned run average, 1.30 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 10.3

#17. John Jaso
- Draft: 338th overall pick in 2003
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 808
- Career stats: 55 home runs, .258 batting average, .763 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 10.9

#16. Jeremy Hellickson
- Draft: 118th overall pick in 2005
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 232
- Career stats: 76 wins, 4.13 earned run average, 1.25 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 11.3

#15. Jake Cronenworth
- Draft: 208th overall pick in 2015
- Position: Second baseman
- Games played: 551
- Career stats: 60 home runs, .250 batting average, .750 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 12.3

#14. Merrill Kelly
- Draft: 251st overall pick in 2010
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 131
- Career stats: 50 wins, 3.75 earned run average, 1.21 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 12.6

#13. Jason Hammel
- Draft: 284th overall pick in 2002
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 377
- Career stats: 96 wins, 4.62 earned run average, 1.37 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 13.1

#12. Desmond Jennings
- Draft: 289th overall pick in 2006
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 567
- Career stats: 55 home runs, .245 batting average, .716 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 13.4

#11. Brandon Lowe
- Draft: 87th overall pick in 2015
- Position: Second baseman
- Games played: 525
- Career stats: 107 home runs, .244 batting average, .814 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 14.1

#10. B.J. Upton
- Draft: 2nd overall pick in 2002
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,469
- Career stats: 164 home runs, .244 batting average, .723 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 16.8

#9. Alex Cobb
- Draft: 109th overall pick in 2006
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 230
- Career stats: 77 wins, 3.85 earned run average, 1.28 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 19.3

#8. Blake Snell
- Draft: 52nd overall pick in 2011
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 197
- Career stats: 71 wins, 3.35 earned run average, 1.25 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 20.2

#7. Aubrey Huff
- Draft: 162nd overall pick in 1998
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,681
- Career stats: 242 home runs, .278 batting average, .806 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 20.5

#6. Josh Hamilton
- Draft: 1st overall pick in 1999
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,027
- Career stats: 200 home runs, .290 batting average, .865 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 28.2

#5. James Shields
- Draft: 466th overall pick in 2000
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 407
- Career stats: 145 wins, 4.01 earned run average, 1.27 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 30.7

#4. Kevin Kiermaier
- Draft: 941st overall pick in 2010
- Position: Right fielder
- Games played: 1,085
- Career stats: 91 home runs, .248 batting average, .714 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 36.0

#3. Carl Crawford
- Draft: 52nd overall pick in 1999
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,716
- Career stats: 136 home runs, .290 batting average, .765 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 39.1

#2. David Price
- Draft: 1st overall pick in 2007
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 400
- Career stats: 157 wins, 3.32 earned run average, 1.16 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 40.2

#1. Evan Longoria
- Draft: 3rd overall pick in 2006
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,986
- Career stats: 342 home runs, .264 batting average, .804 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 58.6

This story features data reporting by Karim Noorani, writing by Mike Taylor, and is part of a series utilizing data automation across 30 MLB teams.