Best draft picks in Chicago Cubs history

The Major League Baseball draft is unique among professional sports drafts. The 30 organizations pick teenagers and college students who will not join their big league clubs for years—if ever.

These athletes will spend that time honing their craft in the minor leagues, where long bus rides and minuscule paychecks are the norm. A few will move quickly up the ranks, seizing playing time opportunities to advance their careers and making their names known to scouts, fans, and other observers around the country.

Some of the best will become MLB stars, but there's minimal correlation to draft position. Four of the best draft picks nationally were picked after hundreds of other diamond darlings, and only two were #1 overall selections.

There's also more than a handful who didn't do much for the teams that drafted them, including superstars such as Nolan Ryan, Ozzie Smith, and Randy Johnson. Each of these players was traded before they evolved into Hall of Famers.

Still, calling the draft a "crapshoot" might be going too far. College players are "slightly more likely" than high schoolers to reach the revered stadiums of the majors, and third-rounders have a better chance than fifth-rounders, for example, though the margins are slim, as Vice reported. Teams not only make picks based on years-in-advance projections but also whether they can sign players, a step that must be completed before those youngsters begin playing professionally.

To see how clubs have fared since the inaugural draft in 1965, ATS.io compiled a list of the best draft picks in Chicago Cubs history using data from Baseball Reference. The players were ranked using career wins above replacement, so not one recent choice was named. Unsigned picks were not considered, and players who were traded as picks were credited to their acquiring teams. Data is as of June 5, 2024.

#25. Ray Burris
- Draft: 399th overall pick in 1972
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 480
- Career stats: 108 wins, 4.17 earned run average, 1.40 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 15.9

#24. Rich Hill
- Draft: 112th overall pick in 2002
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 382
- Career stats: 90 wins, 4.01 earned run average, 1.26 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 16.0

#23. Mark Prior
- Draft: 2nd overall pick in 2001
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 106
- Career stats: 42 wins, 3.51 earned run average, 1.23 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 16.6

#22. Josh Harrison
- Draft: 191st overall pick in 2008
- Position: Second baseman
- Games played: 1,208
- Career stats: 73 home runs, .270 batting average, .712 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 16.8

#21. Kyle Lohse
- Draft: 862nd overall pick in 1996
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 457
- Career stats: 147 wins, 4.4 earned run average, 1.34 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 18.9

#20. Joe Carter
- Draft: 2nd overall pick in 1981
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,189
- Career stats: 396 home runs, .259 batting average, .771 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 19.5

#19. Dontrelle Willis
- Draft: 223rd overall pick in 2000
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 205
- Career stats: 72 wins, 4.17 earned run average, 1.43 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 19.7

#18. Larry Gura
- Draft: 40th overall pick in 1969
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 403
- Career stats: 126 wins, 3.76 earned run average, 1.28 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 21.4

#17. Jon Garland
- Draft: 10th overall pick in 1997
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 365
- Career stats: 136 wins, 4.37 earned run average, 1.39 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 22.5

#16. Oscar Gamble
- Draft: 363rd overall pick in 1968
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,584
- Career stats: 200 home runs, .265 batting average, .811 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 22.9

#15. Mike Krukow
- Draft: 184th overall pick in 1973
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 371
- Career stats: 124 wins, 3.9 earned run average, 1.35 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 24.0

#14. Steve Trachsel
- Draft: 215th overall pick in 1991
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 420
- Career stats: 143 wins, 4.39 earned run average, 1.41 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 25.1

#13. Javier Báez
- Draft: 9th overall pick in 2011
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,192
- Career stats: 176 home runs, .253 batting average, .733 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 25.5

#12. Bill North
- Draft: 280th overall pick in 1969
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,169
- Career stats: 20 home runs, .261 batting average, .688 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 26.8

#11. Ken Holtzman
- Draft: 61st overall pick in 1965
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 451
- Career stats: 174 wins, 3.49 earned run average, 1.29 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 27.3

#10. Kerry Wood
- Draft: 4th overall pick in 1995
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 446
- Career stats: 86 wins, 3.67 earned run average, 1.27 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 27.6

#9. Kris Bryant
- Draft: 2nd overall pick in 2013
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,030
- Career stats: 184 home runs, .274 batting average, .857 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 27.7

#8. Lee Smith
- Draft: 28th overall pick in 1975
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 1,022
- Career stats: 71 wins, 3.03 earned run average, 1.26 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 28.9

#7. DJ LeMahieu
- Draft: 79th overall pick in 2009
- Position: Infielder
- Games played: 1,567
- Career stats: 122 home runs, .292 batting average, .768 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 31.3

#6. Mark Grace
- Draft: 622nd overall pick in 1985
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 2,245
- Career stats: 173 home runs, .303 batting average, .825 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 46.4

#5. Josh Donaldson
- Draft: 48th overall pick in 2007
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 1,383
- Career stats: 279 home runs, .261 batting average, .847 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 46.7

#4. Jamie Moyer
- Draft: 135th overall pick in 1984
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 696
- Career stats: 269 wins, 4.25 earned run average, 1.32 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 49.8

#3. Rick Reuschel
- Draft: 67th overall pick in 1970
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 567
- Career stats: 214 wins, 3.37 earned run average, 1.27 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 69.5

#2. Rafael Palmeiro
- Draft: 22nd overall pick in 1985
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,831
- Career stats: 569 home runs, .288 batting average, .885 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 71.9

#1. Greg Maddux
- Draft: 31st overall pick in 1984
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 744
- Career stats: 355 wins, 3.16 earned run average, 1.14 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 106.6

This story features data reporting by Karim Noorani, writing by Mike Taylor, and is part of a series utilizing data automation across 30 MLB teams.