Best draft picks in Cincinnati Reds history

The Major League Baseball draft is unique among professional sports drafts. The 30 organizations pick teenagers and college students who will not join their big league clubs for years—if ever.

These athletes will spend that time honing their craft in the minor leagues, where long bus rides and minuscule paychecks are the norm. A few will move quickly up the ranks, seizing playing time opportunities to advance their careers and making their names known to scouts, fans, and other observers around the country.

Some of the best will become MLB stars, but there's minimal correlation to draft position. Four of the best draft picks nationally were picked after hundreds of other diamond darlings, and only two were #1 overall selections.

There's also more than a handful who didn't do much for the teams that drafted them, including superstars such as Nolan Ryan, Ozzie Smith, and Randy Johnson. Each of these players was traded before they evolved into Hall of Famers.

Still, calling the draft a "crapshoot" might be going too far. College players are "slightly more likely" than high schoolers to reach the revered stadiums of the majors, and third-rounders have a better chance than fifth-rounders, for example, though the margins are slim, as Vice reported. Teams not only make picks based on years-in-advance projections but also whether they can sign players, a step that must be completed before those youngsters begin playing professionally.

To see how clubs have fared since the inaugural draft in 1965, ATS.io compiled a list of the best draft picks in Cincinnati Reds history using data from Baseball Reference. The players were ranked using career wins above replacement, so not one recent choice was named. Unsigned picks were not considered, and players who were traded as picks were credited to their acquiring teams. Data is as of June 5, 2024.

#25. Jay Howell
- Draft: 668th overall pick in 1976
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 568
- Career stats: 58 wins, 3.34 earned run average, 1.27 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 15.0

#24. Mike Leake
- Draft: 8th overall pick in 2009
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 301
- Career stats: 105 wins, 4.05 earned run average, 1.28 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 16.2

#23. Gary Redus
- Draft: 381st overall pick in 1978
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,159
- Career stats: 90 home runs, .252 batting average, .752 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 16.3

#22. Chris Sabo
- Draft: 30th overall pick in 1983
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 911
- Career stats: 116 home runs, .268 batting average, .772 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 16.6

#21. Adam Dunn
- Draft: 50th overall pick in 1998
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,001
- Career stats: 462 home runs, .237 batting average, .854 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 17.9

#20. Don Gullett
- Draft: 14th overall pick in 1969
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 266
- Career stats: 109 wins, 3.11 earned run average, 1.23 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 18.2

#19. Bernie Carbo
- Draft: 16th overall pick in 1965
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,010
- Career stats: 96 home runs, .264 batting average, .814 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 18.5

#18. Yasmani Grandal
- Draft: 12th overall pick in 2010
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 1,255
- Career stats: 187 home runs, .236 batting average, .768 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 19.6

#17. Tom Browning
- Draft: 233rd overall pick in 1982
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 322
- Career stats: 123 wins, 3.94 earned run average, 1.27 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 19.8

#16. Jay Bruce
- Draft: 12th overall pick in 2005
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,650
- Career stats: 319 home runs, .244 batting average, .781 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 19.9

#15. Jeff Montgomery
- Draft: 212th overall pick in 1983
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 700
- Career stats: 46 wins, 3.27 earned run average, 1.24 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 20.5

#14. Danny Tartabull
- Draft: 71st overall pick in 1980
- Position: Second baseman
- Games played: 1,406
- Career stats: 262 home runs, .273 batting average, .864 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 23.3

#13. Todd Frazier
- Draft: 34th overall pick in 2007
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,244
- Career stats: 218 home runs, .241 batting average, .763 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 25.2

#12. Gary Nolan
- Draft: 13th overall pick in 1966
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 250
- Career stats: 110 wins, 3.08 earned run average, 1.15 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 25.9

#11. Hal McRae
- Draft: 117th overall pick in 1965
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 2,084
- Career stats: 191 home runs, .290 batting average, .805 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 27.9

#10. Trevor Hoffman
- Draft: 290th overall pick in 1989
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,035
- Career stats: 0 home runs, .118 batting average, .294 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 28.0

#9. Charlie Leibrandt
- Draft: 225th overall pick in 1978
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 394
- Career stats: 140 wins, 3.71 earned run average, 1.32 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 33.3

#8. Ken Griffey
- Draft: 682nd overall pick in 1969
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,097
- Career stats: 152 home runs, .296 batting average, .790 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 34.5

#7. Eric Davis
- Draft: 200th overall pick in 1980
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,626
- Career stats: 282 home runs, .269 batting average, .841 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 36.1

#6. Justin Turner
- Draft: 204th overall pick in 2006
- Position: Second baseman
- Games played: 1,591
- Career stats: 191 home runs, .285 batting average, .822 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 36.4

#5. Paul O'Neill
- Draft: 93rd overall pick in 1981
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,053
- Career stats: 281 home runs, .288 batting average, .833 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 38.9

#4. Reggie Sanders
- Draft: 180th overall pick in 1987
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,777
- Career stats: 305 home runs, .267 batting average, .830 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 39.8

#3. Joey Votto
- Draft: 44th overall pick in 2002
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 2,056
- Career stats: 356 home runs, .294 batting average, .920 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 64.5

#2. Barry Larkin
- Draft: 4th overall pick in 1985
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 2,180
- Career stats: 198 home runs, .295 batting average, .815 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 70.5

#1. Johnny Bench
- Draft: 36th overall pick in 1965
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 2,158
- Career stats: 389 home runs, .267 batting average, .817 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 75.1

This story features data reporting by Karim Noorani, writing by Mike Taylor, and is part of a series utilizing data automation across 30 MLB teams.