Forecast: US white-collar and tech jobs may strengthen in Q1 2026
Year-end job data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) painted a bleak picture of the U.S. labor market, sparking discussions of a white-collar slump or potential hiring recession. Traditional labor market indicators often lag behind real-time shifts, making it difficult to anticipate whether conditions are improving or worsening. Now, a new predictive model from a global staffing consultancy suggests there may be some improvements ahead.
Toptal’s projections, published in its most recent high-skilled job report, look at job growth, as measured by new job openings in the U.S. in a given month or year. Job growth has long been a stand-in for the general health of the economy.
The report notes that job growth for the entire U.S. market has been falling at a rate of about 11% per year for the last several years. The new model suggests that decline will likely continue through March 2026 for the broader U.S. job market. But when you narrow the focus to professional services and technology jobs only, things start to look slightly brighter, according to the report.
Job growth in the professional services market (e.g., customer service, marketing, accounting, law, and other knowledge work) has also been declining by about 11% per year. But the model suggests that, while job growth in that market will continue to decline in Q1 2026, it will fall by less than that percentage. (Note: A decline in job growth doesn’t mean the U.S. is losing jobs, just that jobs are being added more slowly than they were previously.)
The technology job market is where the model suggests the most notable turnaround and offers the most optimistic signal. Job growth in that sector has declined by about 21% per year for the last several years, according to the report. But in Q1 2026, it is expected to increase slightly.
The report offers several explanations for the potential upturn in the tech job market, noting that companies are moving beyond AI experimentation toward large-scale implementation, increasing demand for specialized technical expertise. The trajectory aligns with BLS projections, which predict that employment in computer and information technology will grow significantly faster than in other sectors through 2034.
The Data Behind the U.S. Job Market Forecast: Remote Job Postings
The new predictive model is based on a somewhat unexpected leading indicator: remote job openings. More specifically, the projections are based on four years of job openings on We Work Remotely (WWR), widely recognized as the world’s largest remote job board. The report notes that Toptal has exclusive access to the WWR data and that, for further validation, the model cross-references the WWR trends against Toptal’s own client demand for remote and hybrid professionals over the same time period.
It may be surprising to some that remote hiring patterns hold promise as predictive signals of broader job market trends. But the logic mirrors why temporary staffing data has long been considered a bellwether: Both represent how companies test the waters before committing to permanent hires. With remote work, companies tap into the larger global talent pool to fill urgent needs for upcoming projects, foreshadowing longer-term hiring plans. Organizations may also test new initiatives with distributed workers, then scale up with broader hiring if the pilots succeed.
The report cautions, however, that these U.S. job market projections are directional indicators rather than precise predictions. Nonetheless, the model offers a valuable early signal for understanding where hiring may be headed amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
This story was produced by Toptal and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
