Shippers face roadblocks to transpacific trade
The week of Feb. 23 was dominated by a constitutional collision in the United States that fundamentally reshaped the global trade landscape. Freight Right Global Logistics examines key events that have led to the current situation as part of its TrueFreight Index.
The Supreme Court's ruling against the use of emergency powers for tariffs effectively dismantled the legal foundation of the administration's IEEPA tariff program, leading to the imminent cessation of billions of dollars in duties. However, the resulting pivot to a 15% global surcharge under Section 122, a bridge measure valid for 150 days, plunged international relations into fresh turmoil.
The European Union’s decision to pause its summer trade deal with Washington underscores a growing “trust deficit,” as allies and adversaries alike struggle to navigate a U.S. trade policy that has transitioned from high-stakes negotiation to a state of near-total legal and procedural volatility.
This Week’s Ocean, Air and Freight Markets
China-US Ocean Freight Market:
The transpacific ocean freight market has remained in a state of stasis as the industry navigates the tail end of the Lunar New Year holiday. Rates have held firm at the low levels established earlier in the month, with almost no price movement recorded week over week due to the total shutdown of manufacturing and logistics activity in Asia.
CEA to USWC: Pricing remains stable at the current floor of $1,450 to $1,600 per container. This represents a continuation of the breakeven levels seen since early February.
CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast also showed no change, holding steady between $2,400 and $2,500.
What Happened This Past Week:
- Lunar New Year “Main Event”: The market is currently experiencing the peak of the Lunar New Year holiday, which has effectively halted all new bookings and shipping operations in China and Southeast Asia.
- Operational Dormancy: Most market participants in Asia are currently away for the holiday, leading to a complete lack of interest in new business or shipping schedules.
- Pre-Holiday Volume Exhaustion: The rush to ship cargo before the shutdown concluded last week left behind very little in terms of current cargo movement.
- Air Freight Stability: Similar to the ocean sector, air freight has seen no major spikes this week, with rates settling in the high $3.00 to mid-$4.00 range per kilogram as airlines handle the final bits of pre-holiday cargo.
- Trucking Rate Normalization: Following the high trucking rates at origin last week across China, internal logistics costs in China have leveled off as the workforce has largely transitioned into the holiday period.
Looking Ahead:
The immediate outlook remains exceptionally quiet, with next week expected to be even shorter in terms of market updates as the holiday concludes. The market is effectively on autopilot until the end of the month.
The industry is now focused on the post-holiday recovery in March. Shippers should anticipate a period of catch-up as factories reopen, though the strength of this recovery will depend on whether carriers can find ways to push rates above current breakeven levels. A key milestone to watch will be the release of new contract rates toward the end of March, which will signal whether carriers intend to maintain these low levels or implement aggressive capacity management to force a market correction.
This story was produced by Freight Right Global Logistics and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
