Best draft picks in Houston Astros history

The Major League Baseball draft is unique among professional sports drafts. The 30 organizations pick teenagers and college students who will not join their big league clubs for years—if ever.

These athletes will spend that time honing their craft in the minor leagues, where long bus rides and minuscule paychecks are the norm. A few will move quickly up the ranks, seizing playing time opportunities to advance their careers and making their names known to scouts, fans, and other observers around the country.

Some of the best will become MLB stars, but there's minimal correlation to draft position. Four of the best draft picks nationally were picked after hundreds of other diamond darlings, and only two were #1 overall selections.

There's also more than a handful who didn't do much for the teams that drafted them, including superstars such as Nolan Ryan, Ozzie Smith, and Randy Johnson. Each of these players was traded before they evolved into Hall of Famers.

Still, calling the draft a "crapshoot" might be going too far. College players are "slightly more likely" than high schoolers to reach the revered stadiums of the majors, and third-rounders have a better chance than fifth-rounders, for example, though the margins are slim, as Vice reported. Teams not only make picks based on years-in-advance projections but also whether they can sign players, a step that must be completed before those youngsters begin playing professionally.

To see how clubs have fared since the inaugural draft in 1965, ATS.io compiled a list of the best draft picks in Houston Astros history using data from Baseball Reference. The players were ranked using career wins above replacement, so not one recent choice was named. Unsigned picks were not considered, and players who were traded as picks were credited to their acquiring teams. Data is as of June 5, 2024.

#24. Enrique Hernández (tie)
- Draft: 191st overall pick in 2009
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,103
- Career stats: 111 home runs, .238 batting average, .712 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 16.2

#24. Cliff Johnson (tie)
- Draft: 83rd overall pick in 1966
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 1,369
- Career stats: 196 home runs, .258 batting average, .815 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 16.2

#23. Shane Reynolds
- Draft: 72nd overall pick in 1989
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 305
- Career stats: 114 wins, 4.09 earned run average, 1.31 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 17.8

#22. Dallas Keuchel
- Draft: 221st overall pick in 2009
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 278
- Career stats: 103 wins, 4.02 earned run average, 1.32 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 19.0

#21. Darryl Kile
- Draft: 782nd overall pick in 1987
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 359
- Career stats: 133 wins, 4.12 earned run average, 1.41 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 20.2

#20. Kyle Tucker
- Draft: 5th overall pick in 2015
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 615
- Career stats: 121 home runs, .272 batting average, .865 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 21.9

#19. J.R. Richard
- Draft: 2nd overall pick in 1969
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 239
- Career stats: 107 wins, 3.15 earned run average, 1.24 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 22.2

#18. Johnny Ray
- Draft: 294th overall pick in 1979
- Position: Second baseman
- Games played: 1,353
- Career stats: 53 home runs, .290 batting average, .724 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 24.2

#17. John Mayberry
- Draft: 6th overall pick in 1967
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 1,620
- Career stats: 255 home runs, .253 batting average, .799 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 25.0

#16. Ken Forsch
- Draft: 399th overall pick in 1968
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 521
- Career stats: 114 wins, 3.37 earned run average, 1.25 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 26.0

#15. Floyd Bannister
- Draft: 1st overall pick in 1976
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 431
- Career stats: 134 wins, 4.06 earned run average, 1.33 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 26.4

#14. Billy Wagner
- Draft: 12th overall pick in 1993
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 853
- Career stats: 47 wins, 2.31 earned run average, 1.00 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 27.7

#13. J.D. Martinez
- Draft: 611th overall pick in 2009
- Position: Right fielder
- Games played: 1,557
- Career stats: 320 home runs, .286 batting average, .872 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 30.7

#12. Hunter Pence
- Draft: 64th overall pick in 2004
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,707
- Career stats: 244 home runs, .279 batting average, .794 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 30.9

#11. Bill Doran
- Draft: 138th overall pick in 1979
- Position: Infielder
- Games played: 1,453
- Career stats: 84 home runs, .266 batting average, .728 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 32.8

#10. Ken Caminiti
- Draft: 71st overall pick in 1984
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,760
- Career stats: 239 home runs, .272 batting average, .794 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 33.4

#9. Alex Bregman
- Draft: 2nd overall pick in 2015
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,025
- Career stats: 174 home runs, .272 batting average, .851 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 36.2

#8. George Springer
- Draft: 11th overall pick in 2011
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,214
- Career stats: 247 home runs, .265 batting average, .826 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 36.8

#7. Carlos Correa
- Draft: 1st overall pick in 2012
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,065
- Career stats: 177 home runs, .272 batting average, .817 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 42.0

#6. Ben Zobrist
- Draft: 184th overall pick in 2004
- Position: Second baseman
- Games played: 1,651
- Career stats: 167 home runs, .266 batting average, .783 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 44.5

#5. Roy Oswalt
- Draft: 684th overall pick in 1996
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 365
- Career stats: 163 wins, 3.36 earned run average, 1.21 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 50.0

#4. Luis Gonzalez
- Draft: 90th overall pick in 1988
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 2,591
- Career stats: 354 home runs, .283 batting average, .846 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 51.6

#3. Lance Berkman
- Draft: 16th overall pick in 1997
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 1,879
- Career stats: 366 home runs, .294 batting average, .943 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 51.9

#2. Craig Biggio
- Draft: 22nd overall pick in 1987
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 2,850
- Career stats: 291 home runs, .281 batting average, .796 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 65.5

#1. Kenny Lofton
- Draft: 428th overall pick in 1988
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,103
- Career stats: 130 home runs, .299 batting average, .794 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 68.4

This story features data reporting by Karim Noorani, writing by Mike Taylor, and is part of a series utilizing data automation across 30 MLB teams.