Has your state peaked? Examining COVID-19 projections

June 19, 2020
Al Bello // Getty Images

Has your state peaked? Examining COVID-19 projections

COVID-19 is like nothing we have ever seen, so it is crucial to design models to help learn where it is taking us.

Armed with what they know and try to grasp, U.S. states are making decisions that profoundly affect people’s livelihoods and lives. Each decision on how and when to lock down, keep safe distances, or reopen shops, construction sites, schools, and beaches has enormous consequences.

In some states, the coronavirus peaked early, and leaders are moving ahead with some hope that the worst has passed. In other states, the projected peak looms weeks, even months ahead, instilling fear that the worst is yet to come.

Some governors have been measured and cautious, while others have seemed bolder about reopening the economy and throwing desperately needed lifelines to businesses and workers who have gone months without income or wages. Trying to find the balance between protecting lives and protecting livelihoods has been no easy task.

To determine whether each state has reached the peak of its COVID-19 outbreak, Stacker consulted state-specific modeling done by data scientist Youyang Gu. Gu’s estimates are widely cited by researchers and journalists, including by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and his analysis takes into account epidemiological factors and state-by-state reopenings.

For each state, Stacker pulled Gu’s estimate of the total deaths caused by COVID-19 in the state by Oct. 1, as well as the peak dates for new cases and deaths between March 1 and Oct. 1. In selecting the peak dates for new deaths, we selected dates based on the seven-day average, as individual day-by-day values may fluctuate based on individual state reporting methodologies. The predicted values are up to date as of June 18. This data is supplemented with the total numbers of cases and deaths in each state as of June 18, via the COVID Tracking Project.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

Alabama

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 28,206 cases, 810 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,867 (2.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: July 4 to Aug. 7 (12 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: June 28 (1,731 cases per day)

Alabama issued a statewide “stay at home” order on April 4 that was succeeded by a “safer at home” order on May 21 that allowed theaters and bowling alleys to reopen, athletic practices to resume, and schools, day care, and summer camps to open with limits such as social distancing and screening employees. “Safer at home” expires on July 3. Almost a third of all cases arose in the second half of May as regulations were loosened.

 

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Alaska

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 708 cases, 12 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 15 (1.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Not statistically significant - Projected peak date for new cases: March 16 to March 17 (43 cases per day)

COVID-19 has been spiking in recent weeks in Alaska, and the Kenai Peninsula is emerging as a hotspot, state officials say, according to Nathaniel Herz of Alaska’s Energy Desk. The 16,000-square-mile peninsula is a tourist and fishing center in the summer. The infections are concentrated around Homer, where a state ferry recently landed with an outbreak among its crew.

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Arizona

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 43,443 cases, 1,271 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 4,668 (3.7 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: July 25 to Aug. 14 (38 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 13 (5,405 cases per day)

Arizona on June 7 reported more than 1,500 new cases in one day, its highest daily count yet. Arizona Public Health Associate Director Will Humble said people had returned to pre-pandemic behavior when the stay-at-home order expired on May 15. The state’s biggest hospital system, Banner Health, said it was concerned about the steady rise in COVID-19 cases, confirming that the number of patients on ventilators had quadrupled since May 15.

 

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Arkansas

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 13,928 cases, 208 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 924 (4.4 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: July 31 to Sept. 9 (8 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 26 (1,105 cases per day)

The number of new coronavirus cases has been rising in Arkansas. A third of its cases have occurred in the past month, and its hospitalizations increased 88% from Memorial Day to early June. Officials say they are keeping a close eye on the hospitalization figure as a key indicator in the fight against the virus. Unlike in mid-March, however, the state’s hospitals are better prepared, officials say.

 

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California

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 161,099 cases, 5,290 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 16,453 (3.1 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Aug. 18 to Aug. 30 (128 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: Aug 2 (18,053 cases per day)

California was seeing more than 2,000 new COVID-19 cases each day in early June, even as a number of counties across the state were loosening up their stay-at-home restrictions. Most of the new cases are appearing in Southern California.

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Colorado

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 29,673 cases, 1,631 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,631 (1.0 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 24 (41 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 4 (3,503 cases per day)

New numbers of coronavirus cases in Colorado are low, and hospitalizations are on the decline. However, Gov. Jared Polis said he is concerned over a possible rise in infections from the recent mass protests calling for racial justice. Rates of new cases have been increasing in neighboring Arizona and Utah.

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Connecticut

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 45,440 cases, 4,226 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 4,219 (1.0 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 26 (114 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 30 (11,530 cases per day)

Connecticut peaked early, but the number of cases and deaths were still increasing in early June, although by less each day. The state was scheduled to go into Phase 2 of its reopening in mid-June, even though it had only conducted about 42,000 tests in the first week of the month. Gov. Ned Lamont had said he wanted the state to be conducting 100,000 tests a week.

 

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Delaware

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 10,499 cases, 431 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 737 (1.7 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 17 to May 19 (10 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 13 (983 cases per day)

Delaware Gov. John Carney joined with the governors of New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania to design a regional framework for lifting restrictions and reopening the economy. Some businesses resumed operations in early May, and more restrictions were lifted throughout the month. Delaware's presidential primary has been postponed twice and is set for July 7.

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District of Columbia

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 9,903 cases, 527 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 766 (1.5 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 26, April 30 (12 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 5 (1,269 cases per day)

Following a long decline, COVID-19 deaths rose slightly in early June in the District, which is in its initial phase of reopening. Some 80% of the COVID-19 deaths in the District have been African American, although less than half of its population is Black.

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Florida

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 85,926 cases, 3,154 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 8,257 (2.6 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Aug. 5 to Aug. 19 (57 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 20 (8,008 cases per day)

Florida was one of the last states to implement stay-at-home orders, and the decision to keep its beaches open for spring break crowds in March drew heavy criticism. Recent rising numbers of cases–positive tests on June 6 were the highest since early April–have raised concern about new outbreaks as businesses reopen. Gov. Ron DeSantis said the higher numbers are due to increased testing, and that the state is averaging three times the tests it was conducting at the start of April.

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Georgia

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 60,912 cases, 2,605 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 6,055 (2.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 20 (44 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: June 22 to June 23 (5,677 cases per day)

Georgia’s coronavirus numbers have mostly plateaued statewide, according to Dr. Harry Heiman of Georgia State, while officials watch for any spike linked to Memorial Day celebrations or instances when groups of people are not wearing masks or practicing social distancing to help stop the spread of the virus. The state’s most populous counties that make up the Atlanta metropolitan area have been reporting higher numbers of new cases, in part linked to expanded testing.

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Hawaii

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 744 cases, 17 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 20 (1.2 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Not statistically significant - Projected peak date for new cases: March 19 to March 20 (72 cases per day)

The novel coronavirus' toll on Hawaii is striking when looked at in economic terms. The state relies on tourism, and more than 10 million people visited in 2019. But in May, fewer than 5,000 visitors arrived, a 99.5% drop compared with a year earlier. Gov. David Ige has extended a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine for out-of-state visitors to July 31. Honolulu is weighing an exception to the quarantine if visitors are tested for COVID-19 within three days of arrival. Officials also say they are considering ways to permit visitors from other nations where COVID-19 counts were low, such as New Zealand and Japan.

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Idaho

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 3,632 cases, 88 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 112 (1.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 16 (3 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 23 to March 24 (272 cases per day)

Idaho shut down statewide in mid-March after hundreds of coronavirus cases broke out at its Sun Valley ski resort. It started reopening in May. Gov. Brad Little said on June 11 that the state had only barely met the criteria to enter into its final phase of reopening after a rise in cases reported in early June, when several healthcare workers contracted the virus.

 

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Illinois

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 135,639 cases, 6,718 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 11,942 (1.8 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 13 to May 15 (117 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 2 (13,796 cases per day)

Illinois started reopening in May and is poised to allow indoor dining at restaurants and gatherings of up to 50 people on June 26 at the earliest. Gov. J.B. Pritzker has pushed back against calls from state Senate Republicans who want more restrictions lifted more quickly, saying businesses in their constituencies are facing continued economic peril due to months of being shut down. The senators claim that Illinois remains one of the most restrictive states in the Midwest.

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Indiana

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 41,438 cases, 2,491 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 3,918 (1.6 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 1 (62 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 6 (5,697 cases per day)

Indiana has moved into the fourth phase of its reopening, allowing bowling alleys, bars, theaters, and theme parks to resume business at 50% capacity and allowing playgrounds to reopen. Restaurants are allowed indoor dining at 75% capacity, and raceways can run with no spectators. Gov. Eric Holcomb even moved the latest phase of the reopening up two days earlier than planned.

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Iowa

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 24,854 cases, 679 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 675 (1.0 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 26 (16 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 24 (1,688 cases per day)

As of June 11, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations dropped to roughly half of its peak high, and the state just lifted its 50% capacity restrictions on restaurants, bars, theaters, and other businesses. However, the Iowa State Fair has been canceled for the first time since World War II.

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Kansas

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 11,681 cases, 247 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 374 (1.5 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 14, April 17, April 20 to April 22 (6 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 27 to March 28 (568 cases per day)

Kansas’ coronavirus cases peaked months ago, but a positive test in the state from someone who visited the Lake of the Ozarks over the Memorial Day weekend made officials wary. Local health officials say large crowds of partygoers, especially those not following protective guidelines, provide fertile ground for the virus to spread. Images of the crowds at Lake of the Ozarks standing close together without protective facial masks made national headlines.

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Kentucky

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 13,197 cases, 520 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,341 (2.6 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 22 (10 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 23 to July 25 (1,262 cases per day)

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said the state first started to witness a decline in coronavirus cases in late May. NASCAR races are scheduled to return to the Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, although with no spectators, in early July. The Kentucky Derby, scheduled for May 2, was postponed until Sept. 5. The other two contests in horse racing's Triple Crown have also been postponed.

 

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Louisiana

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 48,634 cases, 3,062 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 4,263 (1.4 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 18 (66 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 22 (7,126 cases per day)

The CDC issued a report that the Mardi Gras celebration in late February in New Orleans, which drew crowds of more than 1 million people to the city, most likely hastened the spread of coronavirus throughout the state. Louisiana was one of the nation’s earliest hotspots. As of June 9, the number of new cases had spiked as thousands of more tests have been conducted. However, officials caution that the new cases show a positivity rate of 5.1%, up from 4.9% a week earlier.

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Maine

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 2,878 cases, 102 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 160 (1.6 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 24 (3 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 29 to March 30 (205 cases per day)

Maine Gov. Janet Mills allowed businesses in rural counties to reopen in May, including dine-in service in restaurants, but held off in three counties where infection rates had not eased sufficiently. Four restaurants in those counties have gone to court to argue that the reopening plan was unfair to business in counties with stricter limits and that the governor had overstepped by treating them differently. As of July 1, visitors with proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test do not have to quarantine, and residents of nearby New Hampshire and Vermont are exempt.

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Maryland

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 63,229 cases, 3,016 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 5,339 (1.8 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 24 (66 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 5 (6,696 cases per day)

With its COVID-19 peaks believed to be in the past, Maryland has reopened restaurants for outdoor dining and outdoor pools with capacity restrictions. Businesses that were deemed nonessential have been allowed to reopen, such as real estate offices, travel agencies, and bank branches. Personal care services like tanning salons, nail salons, massage therapists, and tattoo parlors can operate at 50% capacity.

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Massachusetts

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 106,422 cases, 7,770 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 9,866 (1.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 25 (189 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 3 (19,991 cases per day)

The daily number of new coronavirus cases in Massachusetts on June 11 showed an uptick, nearly doubling from the previous day. Officials said they were watching to see if it was part of a rising trend after the state reopened businesses and relaxed protective guidelines. The state has loosened restrictions at nursing homes and assisted living facilities to allow for limited outdoor visits.

 

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Michigan

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 66,798 cases, 6,061 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 7,042 (1.2 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 23 (146 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 24 (17,035 cases per day)

At its current stage of reopening, Michigan requires people to wear face coverings in enclosed public spaces, and in-home services like house cleaning have resumed. In some parts of the state, officials are allowing outdoor gatherings of up to 250 people and indoor gatherings of up to 50 people, all with social distancing. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer issued an executive order in April creating a Coronavirus Task Force on Racial Disparities to research the impact of the pandemic in Black communities.

 

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Minnesota

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 31,675 cases, 1,376 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 3,006 (2.2 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: June 2 (25 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 15 (2,761 cases per day)

Minnesota has allowed its bars and restaurants to reopen with limited indoor service, and movie theaters, fitness clubs, and bowling alleys can operate at 25% capacity. Next under consideration are competitive youth sports, overnight camps, and professional sports games with no fans in the stands. The state has recommended COVID-19 testing for people who have participated in the mass protests triggered by the death of George Floyd while in Minneapolis police custody. The state’s director of infectious diseases, Kris Ehresmann, says the state is keeping a close eye out for any possible increase in coronavirus cases linked to the protests.

 

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Mississippi

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 20,641 cases, 938 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 2,203 (2.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 7 (19 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: June 23 to June 24 (2,146 cases per day)

In early June, Mississippi reported a 17% increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations since the Memorial Day weekend. The state’s coastal beaches were crowded with visitors for the holiday weekend, and the city of Ocean Springs hosted an outdoor crawfish cookoff that hundreds of people attended.

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Missouri

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 16,908 cases, 946 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,761 (1.9 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 26 to April 27 (19 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 28 (1,879 cases per day)

Missouri is making plans to lift all its coronavirus-related restrictions as of June 16, giving local officials the option of maintaining their own guidelines. Restrictions also remain in St. Louis. Officials said hospitalizations fell by more than 40% statewide from the start of May to June 10. Plans call for the Missouri State Fair to be held in August, although perhaps with shortened hours and no concerts.

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Montana

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 655 cases, 20 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 27 (1.4 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Not statistically significant - Projected peak date for new cases: March 26 to March 27 (65 cases per day)

Since June 1, a quarantine for out-of-state visitors has been lifted, and all businesses in Montana are allowed to operate within social distancing and sanitation protocols. Casinos, restaurants, and bars can operate at 75% capacity, as can gyms, pools, and hot tubs. The governor has announced a goal of conducting 60,000 coronavirus tests monthly.

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Nebraska

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 17,226 cases, 234 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 658 (2.8 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: June 16 to June 17 (6 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: June 21 (689 cases per day)

Nebraska’s governor did not issue a formal stay-at-home order, and the state started to resume business in early May. Its farm bureau recently estimated the state could suffer almost $3.7 billion in agricultural income losses this year due to the coronavirus. It predicted losses in the production of corn, soybeans, wheat, pork, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and ethanol.

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Nevada

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 12,076 cases, 475 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,010 (2.1 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 13 (10 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 26 (881 cases per day)

On June 9, state health officials reported slight increases in COVID-19 cases, attributed in part to the reopening of businesses and increased testing. Hospitalizations also have been increasing, but bed capacity is adequate. Nevada started reopening in early May with curbside retail businesses and drive-up religious services where worshipers remain in their vehicles.

 

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New Hampshire

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 5,436 cases, 330 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 929 (2.8 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 13, May 22 (8 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 10 to July 11 (958 cases per day)

New Hampshire has just started to reopen, with limited business at gyms, beaches, and personal care salons, as well as plans to reopen indoor movie theaters, amusement parks, performing arts centers, and adult day centers on June 29, with safety restrictions. The state epidemiologist, Dr. Ben Chan, has said the decreasing numbers of hospitalizations and positive tests are promising trends. New Hampshire has funded a weekly stipend for frontline workers, mental health services for COVID-19-related issues, homeless shelters, emergency child protection, and domestic violence relief programs since the outbreak began.

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New Jersey

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 168,107 cases, 12,800 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 15,809 (1.2 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 20 (293 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 27 (26,293 cases per day)

New Jersey has had the second-highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the nation, behind neighboring New York. But the pandemic peaked in April, and the state’s numbers have been dropping since. Approximately 80% of those who died of the virus were age 65 or older.

 

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New Mexico

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 10,065 cases, 452 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,185 (2.6 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 14 to May 16 (10 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 26 to July 27 (1,154 cases per day)

New Mexico declared a statewide health emergency on March 11, when just four cases were confirmed, and hospitals promptly started offering free drive-through testing. At least half of the COVID-19 cases in New Mexico have occurred among members of the Navajo Nation, a largely poor community with significant health care issues that has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic.

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New York

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 385,760 cases, 24,661 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 32,921 (1.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 12 (951 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 18 (86,493 cases per day)

The early epicenter for the pandemic in the United States, New York has seen its rate of new cases and deaths steadily decrease. The state has been in various stages of reopening, with New York City, which was hit the hardest, the slowest to resume business. Only on June 8 did Gov. Andrew Cuomo allow New York City to begin the first phase of reopening. All New Yorkers are required to wear face masks in public and where social distancing is not possible. Many stores have posted signs reading: “No Mask, No Service.”

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North Carolina

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 48,188 cases, 1,175 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 3,662 (3.1 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Aug. 8 to Aug. 20 (29 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 22 to July 23 (4,035 cases per day)

On June 11, North Carolina reported record-high days of new coronavirus cases, and health officials have raised concerns about rising hospitalizations–one of the measures used to determine the pace of reopening the economy. Since late May, North Carolina has allowed gatherings of up to 10 people indoors, while restaurants, personal care businesses, and pools can operate at 50% capacity with distancing and cleaning protocols. Child-care facilities, day camps, and overnight camps can also open with restrictions.

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North Dakota

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 3,193 cases, 81 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 130 (1.6 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Not statistically significant - Projected peak date for new cases: April 7 to April 12 (131 cases per day)

North Dakota governor Doug Burgum did not issue a statewide stay-at-home order. Many businesses closed through April but resumed operations under "North Dakota Smart Restart” in May. The state ranked third nationwide in state testing per capita behind New York and Rhode Island as of May 29.

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Ohio

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 43,122 cases, 2,633 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 5,071 (1.9 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 23 to May 24 (49 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 9 (5,406 cases per day)

Ohio has expanded its COVID-19 testing to average more than 11,000 a day, and it’s free for anyone with or without symptoms. The state’s nursing homes and long-term care facilities accounted for a quarter of the COVID-19 cases and more than 70% of the deaths. More than half of those who died were age 80 or older. Among the dead were 35 inmates at the Pickaway Correctional Institution, which houses aging inmates.

 

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Oklahoma

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 8,904 cases, 364 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 495 (1.4 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 21, April 25 to 27 (8 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 20 to March 21 (820 cases per day)

After the state’s health emergency act expired on May 31, Oklahoma officials stopped releasing an array of COVID-19 data such as infections and deaths in nursing homes and local-level rates by ZIP code, city, or in counties with small populations. The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) complained, saying the information was critical to families of nursing home residents. More than half of the state’s COVID-19 deaths were in nursing homes. The governor’s office said the state no longer needed the emergency declaration and that it was looking for other ways to provide health data while protecting residents’ rights to privacy.

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Oregon

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 6,366 cases, 187 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 360 (1.9 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 11 to 15, April 17 (4 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 25 (353 cases per day)

While peaking early in the pandemic, Oregon recently reported that June 7 had the highest single-day number of new cases since the crisis began. An outbreak at the Pacific Seafood processing plant accounted for a large share of the newest cases. The state has launched a contact-tracing system that aims to enable health officials to initiate tracing for 95% of new cases within 24 hours. Overall, health officials want to trace a minimum of 70% of new cases to a source.

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Pennsylvania

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 80,236 cases, 6,361 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 9,426 (1.5 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 5 (162 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 8 (16,226 cases per day)

Most of the COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania were in nursing homes, where more than 4,000 people died. On June 8, the state ordered all 693 nursing homes to test staff and residents by July 24, a mandate that critics said came too late in the pandemic outbreak. Research by local journalists found that as of early June, only 75 facilities had completed testing on a voluntary basis.

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Rhode Island

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 16,269 cases, 885 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,564 (1.8 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 5 to 9, May 27 to 28 (17 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 12 (1,764 cases per day)

With a peak date for new cases looming, Gov. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island announced plans on June 8 to expand coronavirus testing to those who do not show any symptoms. First up will be childcare workers and employees at businesses involving close contact with customers such as barbershops, salons, and gyms. The state aims to test 900 asymptomatic people daily.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

South Carolina

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 21,548 cases, 621 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,794 (2.9 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 4 to May 5 (15 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 10 to July 11 (1,803 cases per day)

The governor of South Carolina, Henry McMaster, allowed beaches to reopen in late April, and while many remained closed, the ones that opened were quickly crowded with beachgoers. But the state has seen a spike in cases, and officials said the recent numbers are the worst since the pandemic began in March. Dr. Linda Bell, the state’s epidemiologist, blamed a lack of social distancing and said residents were not wearing face masks or following preventative guidelines. The governor said there would be no orders to close businesses or issue restrictions, considering it to be a matter of individual responsibility.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

South Dakota

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 6,109 cases, 78 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 182 (2.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Not statistically significant - Projected peak date for new cases: June 12 to June 17 (175 cases per day)

A Smithfield plant in South Dakota responsible for 5% of all U.S. pork production was an early coronavirus hot spot. Nearly 800 workers tested positive, and two died. After the outbreak, President Donald Trump ordered meat-processing plants to remain open to protect the nation’s food supply. South Dakota never issued a statewide stay-at-home order. Instead, the governor recommended residents follow recommended hygiene practices and social distancing, limited the size of gatherings, encouraged remote work, and postponed nonessential elective surgeries.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

Tennessee

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 32,829 cases, 509 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,247 (2.4 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: June 15 to June 18 (9 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: June 26 to June 27 (1,129 cases per day)

Reported cases of coronavirus have been trending higher in Tennessee as of June 8, especially in Nashville and Knoxville. Gov. Bill Lee said the rise in infections and hospitalizations was the expected result of the state reopening its economy. The number of confirmed cases are up more than 40% from May.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

Texas

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 99,851 cases, 2,105 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 4,660 (2.2 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 14 to May 17, May 20 (36 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: June 15 to June 16 (4,198 cases per day)

Coronavirus cases have been on the rise in Texas, which on June 10 reported the highest number of new cases in a single day since the beginning of the pandemic. The state had one of the most aggressive reopenings in the country, and the surge in infections has been linked to gatherings held to celebrate Memorial Day.

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Utah

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 15,839 cases, 152 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 650 (4.3 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: July 20 to Oct. 1 (5 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: Aug. 1 to Aug. 3 (771 cases per day)

Most of Utah went into a “low risk” phase, with restrictions such as no gatherings of more than 50 people, in mid-May. A recent spike in cases was attributed on June 8 to fallout from Memorial Day get-togethers, an outbreak in a meat packing plant, and an outbreak in a Veterans’ Administration nursing home.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

Vermont

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 1,135 cases, 56 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 68 (1.2 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Not statistically significant - Projected peak date for new cases: March 19 to March 20 (158 cases per day)

Vermont reopened its bars and restaurants to inside dining at 25% capacity with social distancing and other restrictions. It is also allowing out-of-state visitors without quarantining from certain regions of New England and upstate New York that are showing low infection rates.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

Virginia

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 56,238 cases, 1,586 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 3,559 (2.2 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: May 28 (34 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 7 to April 8 (3,358 cases per day)

Virginia’s stay-at-home orders expired on June 10, although Gov. Ralph Northam has ordered that face masks be worn indefinitely in all public indoor spaces by anyone age 10. Although the state has not peaked, it has met a benchmark set by the governor for PPE supplies and hospital capacity since early May, with nearly 4,000 hospital beds available and no reports of PPE supply issues.

 

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

Washington

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 26,784 cases, 1,226 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 2,368 (1.9 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 8, April 10 (27 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: March 16 (2,549 cases per day)

The early epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States was in a Seattle-area nursing home, where at least 37 people died and two-thirds of residents were infected. The Life Care Center of Kirkland now faces more than $600,000 in fines and may lose federal funding over its handling of the outbreak. With the state’s peak of new cases believed to have come and gone in March, a statewide stay-at-home order was replaced on June 1 by a phased-in, county-by-county plan for reopening.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

West Virginia

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 2,418 cases, 88 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 125 (1.4 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: April 23 (3 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: April 2 (223 cases per day)

While urging people to wear face masks, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice lifted a number of virus-related restrictions before Memorial Day, allowing the reopening of malls, indoor restaurants, tanning salons, and big-box stores. The reopening of swimming pools, bowling alleys, and spas followed a few days on May 30, along with movie theaters and casinos on June 5. On that date, the limit on public gatherings was lifted to 100 people from 25.

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Wisconsin

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 23,876 cases, 719 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 1,834 (2.6 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: June 2 (13 deaths per day)
- Projected peak date for new cases: July 20 (1,726 cases per day)

Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court overturned the governor’s stay-at-home order in mid-May, and within hours, a number of bars and taverns were packed with celebratory revelers. In the wake of the ruling, local health authorities tried to assemble a patchwork of county- and city-wide restrictions in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. In Milwaukee, the state’s largest city, bars and restaurants remain limited to takeout. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who said he was saddened and disappointed by the court’s decision, has called for the state to conduct 85,000 COVID-19 tests per week and employ 1,000 contact tracers for the population of more than 5.8 million people.

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Youyang Gu // COVID-19 state projections

Wyoming

- Cumulative state COVID-19 statistics as of June 18: 1,144 cases, 18 deaths
- Projected total deaths by Oct. 1: 26 (1.4 times current death toll)
- Projected peak date for new deaths: Not statistically significant - Projected peak date for new cases: May 5 to May 22 (29 cases per day)

Wyoming did not implement a stay-at-home order, Gov. Mark Gordon asked residents to stay home when possible. It issued a directive requiring visitors from out of state to self-quarantine for 14 days that was allowed to expire on May 8. The state has canceled an array of events that draw tourists such as the annual summer rodeos and celebrations in Thermopolis, Cody, Casper, Sheridan, Laramie, and Cheyenne.

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