Best draft picks in Washington Nationals history

The Major League Baseball draft is unique among professional sports drafts. The 30 organizations pick teenagers and college students who will not join their big league clubs for years—if ever.

These athletes will spend that time honing their craft in the minor leagues, where long bus rides and minuscule paychecks are the norm. A few will move quickly up the ranks, seizing playing time opportunities to advance their careers and making their names known to scouts, fans, and other observers around the country.

Some of the best will become MLB stars, but there's minimal correlation to draft position. Four of the best draft picks nationally were picked after hundreds of other diamond darlings, and only two were #1 overall selections.

There's also more than a handful who didn't do much for the teams that drafted them, including superstars such as Nolan Ryan, Ozzie Smith, and Randy Johnson. Each of these players was traded before they evolved into Hall of Famers.

Still, calling the draft a "crapshoot" might be going too far. College players are "slightly more likely" than high schoolers to reach the revered stadiums of the majors, and third-rounders have a better chance than fifth-rounders, for example, though the margins are slim, as Vice reported. Teams not only make picks based on years-in-advance projections but also whether they can sign players, a step that must be completed before those youngsters begin playing professionally.

To see how clubs have fared since the inaugural draft in 1965, ATS.io compiled a list of the best draft picks in Washington Nationals history using data from Baseball Reference. The players were ranked using career wins above replacement, so not one recent choice was named. Unsigned picks were not considered, and players who were traded as picks were credited to their acquiring teams. Data is as of June 5, 2024.

#25. Ellis Valentine
- Draft: 29th overall pick in 1972
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 894
- Career stats: 123 home runs, .278 batting average, .773 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 17.1

#24. José Vidro
- Draft: 155th overall pick in 1992
- Position: Second baseman
- Games played: 1,418
- Career stats: 128 home runs, .298 batting average, .804 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 17.4

#23. Robbie Ray
- Draft: 356th overall pick in 2010
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 226
- Career stats: 74 wins, 3.96 earned run average, 1.30 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 17.6

#22. Jordan Zimmermann
- Draft: 67th overall pick in 2007
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 279
- Career stats: 95 wins, 4.07 earned run average, 1.25 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 22.1

#21. Bill Gullickson
- Draft: 2nd overall pick in 1977
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 398
- Career stats: 162 wins, 3.93 earned run average, 1.28 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 23.3

#20. Delino DeShields
- Draft: 12th overall pick in 1987
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,615
- Career stats: 80 home runs, .268 batting average, .729 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 24.4

#19. Jason Bay
- Draft: 645th overall pick in 2000
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,278
- Career stats: 222 home runs, .266 batting average, .841 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 24.8

#18. Cliff Floyd
- Draft: 14th overall pick in 1991
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 1,621
- Career stats: 233 home runs, .278 batting average, .840 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 25.9

#17. Mark Grudzielanek
- Draft: 295th overall pick in 1991
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,802
- Career stats: 90 home runs, .289 batting average, .725 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 26.5

#16. Scott Sanderson
- Draft: 54th overall pick in 1977
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 472
- Career stats: 163 wins, 3.84 earned run average, 1.26 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 27.6

#15. Grady Sizemore
- Draft: 75th overall pick in 2000
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,101
- Career stats: 150 home runs, .265 batting average, .806 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 27.8

#14. Rondell White
- Draft: 24th overall pick in 1990
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,474
- Career stats: 198 home runs, .284 batting average, .799 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 28.2

#13. Brandon Phillips
- Draft: 57th overall pick in 1999
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,902
- Career stats: 211 home runs, .275 batting average, .740 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 28.4

#12. Marquis Grissom
- Draft: 76th overall pick in 1988
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,165
- Career stats: 227 home runs, .272 batting average, .732 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 29.6

#11. Stephen Strasburg
- Draft: 1st overall pick in 2009
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 247
- Career stats: 113 wins, 3.24 earned run average, 1.10 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 32.3

#10. Anthony Rendon
- Draft: 6th overall pick in 2011
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,135
- Career stats: 158 home runs, .283 batting average, .838 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 33.6

#9. Tim Wallach
- Draft: 10th overall pick in 1979
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 2,212
- Career stats: 260 home runs, .257 batting average, .732 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 38.5

#8. Ryan Zimmerman
- Draft: 4th overall pick in 2005
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,799
- Career stats: 284 home runs, .277 batting average, .816 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 40.1

#7. Cliff Lee
- Draft: 105th overall pick in 2000
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 328
- Career stats: 143 wins, 3.52 earned run average, 1.20 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 43.2

#6. Javier Vázquez
- Draft: 140th overall pick in 1994
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 450
- Career stats: 165 wins, 4.22 earned run average, 1.25 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 45.6

#5. Bryce Harper
- Draft: 1st overall pick in 2010
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,565
- Career stats: 320 home runs, .281 batting average, .911 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 48.3

#4. Andre Dawson
- Draft: 250th overall pick in 1975
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,627
- Career stats: 438 home runs, .279 batting average, .806 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 64.9

#3. Tim Raines
- Draft: 106th overall pick in 1977
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 2,502
- Career stats: 170 home runs, .294 batting average, .810 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 69.4

#2. Gary Carter
- Draft: 53rd overall pick in 1972
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 2,296
- Career stats: 324 home runs, .263 batting average, .773 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 70.2

#1. Randy Johnson
- Draft: 36th overall pick in 1985
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 618
- Career stats: 303 wins, 3.29 earned run average, 1.17 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 101.1

This story features data reporting by Karim Noorani, writing by Mike Taylor, and is part of a series utilizing data automation across 30 MLB teams.