Best draft picks in San Diego Padres history

The Major League Baseball draft is unique among professional sports drafts. The 30 organizations pick teenagers and college students who will not join their big league clubs for years—if ever.

These athletes will spend that time honing their craft in the minor leagues, where long bus rides and minuscule paychecks are the norm. A few will move quickly up the ranks, seizing playing time opportunities to advance their careers and making their names known to scouts, fans, and other observers around the country.

Some of the best will become MLB stars, but there's minimal correlation to draft position. Four of the best draft picks nationally were picked after hundreds of other diamond darlings, and only two were #1 overall selections.

There's also more than a handful who didn't do much for the teams that drafted them, including superstars such as Nolan Ryan, Ozzie Smith, and Randy Johnson. Each of these players was traded before they evolved into Hall of Famers.

Still, calling the draft a "crapshoot" might be going too far. College players are "slightly more likely" than high schoolers to reach the revered stadiums of the majors, and third-rounders have a better chance than fifth-rounders, for example, though the margins are slim, as Vice reported. Teams not only make picks based on years-in-advance projections but also whether they can sign players, a step that must be completed before those youngsters begin playing professionally.

To see how clubs have fared since the inaugural draft in 1965, ATS.io compiled a list of the best draft picks in San Diego Padres history using data from Baseball Reference. The players were ranked using career wins above replacement, so not one recent choice was named. Unsigned picks were not considered, and players who were traded as picks were credited to their acquiring teams. Data is as of June 5, 2024.

#25. Logan Forsythe
- Draft: 46th overall pick in 2008
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 970
- Career stats: 71 home runs, .244 batting average, .695 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 12.1

#24. Matt Clement
- Draft: 86th overall pick in 1993
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 238
- Career stats: 87 wins, 4.47 earned run average, 1.40 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 12.3

#23. Mat Latos
- Draft: 333rd overall pick in 2006
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 197
- Career stats: 71 wins, 3.64 earned run average, 1.21 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 12.4

#22. Greg Harris
- Draft: 258th overall pick in 1985
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 243
- Career stats: 45 wins, 3.98 earned run average, 1.30 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 12.9

#21. Will Venable
- Draft: 218th overall pick in 2005
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 967
- Career stats: 81 home runs, .249 batting average, .719 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 13.0

#20. Gary Matthews
- Draft: 366th overall pick in 1993
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,281
- Career stats: 108 home runs, .257 batting average, .737 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 14.2

#19. Joey Hamilton
- Draft: 8th overall pick in 1991
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 242
- Career stats: 74 wins, 4.44 earned run average, 1.42 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 14.3

#18. Eric Show
- Draft: 447th overall pick in 1978
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 332
- Career stats: 101 wins, 3.66 earned run average, 1.29 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 15.6

#17. Randy Jones
- Draft: 97th overall pick in 1972
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 319
- Career stats: 100 wins, 3.42 earned run average, 1.25 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 17.7

#16. Dave Hollins
- Draft: 146th overall pick in 1987
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 983
- Career stats: 112 home runs, .260 batting average, .779 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 17.8

#14. Jason Bartlett (tie)
- Draft: 390th overall pick in 2001
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 892
- Career stats: 31 home runs, .270 batting average, .702 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 18.4

#14. Mike Caldwell (tie)
- Draft: 273rd overall pick in 1971
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 475
- Career stats: 137 wins, 3.81 earned run average, 1.32 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 18.4

#13. David Freese
- Draft: 273rd overall pick in 2006
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,184
- Career stats: 113 home runs, .277 batting average, .775 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 18.7

#12. Shane Mack
- Draft: 11th overall pick in 1984
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 923
- Career stats: 80 home runs, .299 batting average, .821 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 21.7

#11. Max Fried
- Draft: 7th overall pick in 2012
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 151
- Career stats: 68 wins, 3.02 earned run average, 1.15 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 22.2

#10. Chase Headley
- Draft: 66th overall pick in 2005
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,436
- Career stats: 130 home runs, .263 batting average, .742 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 25.9

#9. Kevin McReynolds
- Draft: 6th overall pick in 1981
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,502
- Career stats: 211 home runs, .265 batting average, .775 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 30.1

#8. Andy Benes
- Draft: 1st overall pick in 1988
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 403
- Career stats: 155 wins, 3.97 earned run average, 1.31 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 31.5

#7. Corey Kluber
- Draft: 134th overall pick in 2007
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 271
- Career stats: 116 wins, 3.44 earned run average, 1.13 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 34.0

#6. Derrek Lee
- Draft: 14th overall pick in 1993
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 1,942
- Career stats: 331 home runs, .281 batting average, .859 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 34.6

#5. Trea Turner
- Draft: 13th overall pick in 2014
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,037
- Career stats: 152 home runs, .298 batting average, .833 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 34.9

#4. Jake Peavy
- Draft: 472nd overall pick in 1999
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 388
- Career stats: 152 wins, 3.63 earned run average, 1.20 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 39.2

#3. Dave Winfield
- Draft: 4th overall pick in 1973
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 2,973
- Career stats: 465 home runs, .283 batting average, .827 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 64.2

#2. Tony Gwynn
- Draft: 58th overall pick in 1981
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 2,440
- Career stats: 135 home runs, .338 batting average, .847 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 69.2

#1. Ozzie Smith
- Draft: 86th overall pick in 1977
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 2,573
- Career stats: 28 home runs, .262 batting average, .666 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 76.9

This story features data reporting by Karim Noorani, writing by Mike Taylor, and is part of a series utilizing data automation across 30 MLB teams.