Best draft picks in Toronto Blue Jays history

The Major League Baseball draft is unique among professional sports drafts. The 30 organizations pick teenagers and college students who will not join their big league clubs for years—if ever.

These athletes will spend that time honing their craft in the minor leagues, where long bus rides and minuscule paychecks are the norm. A few will move quickly up the ranks, seizing playing time opportunities to advance their careers and making their names known to scouts, fans, and other observers around the country.

Some of the best will become MLB stars, but there's minimal correlation to draft position. Four of the best draft picks nationally were picked after hundreds of other diamond darlings, and only two were #1 overall selections.

There's also more than a handful who didn't do much for the teams that drafted them, including superstars such as Nolan Ryan, Ozzie Smith, and Randy Johnson. Each of these players was traded before they evolved into Hall of Famers.

Still, calling the draft a "crapshoot" might be going too far. College players are "slightly more likely" than high schoolers to reach the revered stadiums of the majors, and third-rounders have a better chance than fifth-rounders, for example, though the margins are slim, as Vice reported. Teams not only make picks based on years-in-advance projections but also whether they can sign players, a step that must be completed before those youngsters begin playing professionally.

To see how clubs have fared since the inaugural draft in 1965, ATS.io compiled a list of the best draft picks in Toronto Blue Jays history using data from Baseball Reference. The players were ranked using career wins above replacement, so not one recent choice was named. Unsigned picks were not considered, and players who were traded as picks were credited to their acquiring teams. Data is as of June 5, 2024.

#25. Noah Syndergaard
- Draft: 38th overall pick in 2010
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 164
- Career stats: 59 wins, 3.71 earned run average, 1.20 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 15.6

#24. Kevin Pillar
- Draft: 979th overall pick in 2011
- Position: Centerfielder
- Games played: 1,153
- Career stats: 112 home runs, .259 batting average, .709 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 17.3

#23. Bo Bichette
- Draft: 66th overall pick in 2016
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 585
- Career stats: 93 home runs, .294 batting average, .809 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 17.6

#22. Yan Gomes
- Draft: 310th overall pick in 2009
- Position: Catcher
- Games played: 1,112
- Career stats: 137 home runs, .246 batting average, .707 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 18.7

#21. Mike Timlin
- Draft: 127th overall pick in 1987
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 1,058
- Career stats: 75 wins, 3.63 earned run average, 1.28 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 19.0

#20. Marcus Stroman
- Draft: 22nd overall pick in 2012
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 243
- Career stats: 82 wins, 3.61 earned run average, 1.25 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 23.2

#19. Aaron Hill
- Draft: 13th overall pick in 2003
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,559
- Career stats: 162 home runs, .266 batting average, .740 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 24.4

#18. Michael Young
- Draft: 149th overall pick in 1997
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,970
- Career stats: 185 home runs, .300 batting average, .787 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 24.7

#17. Casey Blake
- Draft: 189th overall pick in 1996
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,265
- Career stats: 167 home runs, .264 batting average, .778 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 24.8

#16. Shannon Stewart
- Draft: 19th overall pick in 1992
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,386
- Career stats: 115 home runs, .297 batting average, .790 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 24.9

#15. Alex Ríos
- Draft: 19th overall pick in 1999
- Position: Third baseman
- Games played: 1,691
- Career stats: 169 home runs, .277 batting average, .755 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 27.3

#14. Lloyd Moseby
- Draft: 2nd overall pick in 1978
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 1,588
- Career stats: 169 home runs, .257 batting average, .746 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 27.6

#13. Vernon Wells
- Draft: 5th overall pick in 1997
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,731
- Career stats: 270 home runs, .270 batting average, .778 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 28.6

#12. Woody Williams
- Draft: 732nd overall pick in 1988
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 424
- Career stats: 132 wins, 4.19 earned run average, 1.32 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 30.2

#11. Orlando Hudson
- Draft: 1280th overall pick in 1997
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 1,345
- Career stats: 93 home runs, .273 batting average, .752 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 30.9

#10. Pat Hentgen
- Draft: 133rd overall pick in 1986
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 344
- Career stats: 131 wins, 4.32 earned run average, 1.39 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 32.6

#9. Chris Carpenter
- Draft: 15th overall pick in 1993
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 350
- Career stats: 144 wins, 3.76 earned run average, 1.28 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 34.2

#8. Shawn Green
- Draft: 16th overall pick in 1991
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,951
- Career stats: 328 home runs, .283 batting average, .850 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 34.7

#7. Jesse Barfield
- Draft: 233rd overall pick in 1977
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 1,428
- Career stats: 241 home runs, .256 batting average, .802 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 39.4

#6. Jimmy Key
- Draft: 56th overall pick in 1982
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 470
- Career stats: 186 wins, 3.51 earned run average, 1.23 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 48.9

#5. David Wells
- Draft: 30th overall pick in 1982
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 660
- Career stats: 239 wins, 4.13 earned run average, 1.27 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 53.5

#4. Jeff Kent
- Draft: 523rd overall pick in 1989
- Position: Shortstop
- Games played: 2,298
- Career stats: 377 home runs, .290 batting average, .855 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 55.4

#3. Dave Stieb
- Draft: 106th overall pick in 1978
- Position: Outfielder
- Games played: 443
- Career stats: 0 home runs, .000 batting average, .000 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 56.4

#2. John Olerud
- Draft: 79th overall pick in 1989
- Position: First baseman
- Games played: 2,234
- Career stats: 255 home runs, .295 batting average, .863 on-base plus slugging
- Wins above replacement: 58.2

#1. Roy Halladay
- Draft: 17th overall pick in 1995
- Position: Pitcher
- Games played: 416
- Career stats: 203 wins, 3.38 earned run average, 1.18 walks plus hits per inning
- Wins above replacement: 64.2

This story features data reporting by Karim Noorani, writing by Mike Taylor, and is part of a series utilizing data automation across 30 MLB teams.