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Environment

Counties projected to have the most extreme precipitation days in 2050

Written by:
Gina-Marie Cheeseman
March 2, 2021
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Counties projected to have the most extreme precipitation days in 2050

We all know that climate change affects temperature, but you may not realize that it also affects how much precipitation we get. As the Environmental Protection Agency explains, the higher the temperature of the ocean, the more water evaporates into the air. As it moves over land or potentially converges with a storm system, that moisture-laden air can produce more intense precipitation.

Across the country, heavy precipitation events are increasing—and are projected to continue doing so. More than 10 states set new 24-hour rainfall records in the 21st century, according to a 2024 report published by The Weather Channel, using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A June report from NOAA noted that the January–June precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. in 2024 was the 11th wettest in its 130-year record. The Upper Midwest, Northeast, and Deep South have all seen above-average rainfall, with a few states getting particularly high levels of precipitation. For Rhode Island, it's been the second-wettest year-to-date on record and the third-wettest for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

To determine how these numbers may shift in the future, Stacker set out to identify the U.S. counties that are expected to see the most extreme precipitation days in 2050 using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention & National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network. They use a 30-year rolling average to calculate the projected amount of days with extreme precipitation. These predictions were last updated in December of 2018.

Counties are ranked by low emission days of extreme precipitation in 2050. The number of extreme precipitation days is relative to days in a year, with the measure calculated annually and representing a 30-year rolling average.

Keep reading to see if your own home county is projected to be among those with the most extreme precipitation days in 2050.

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#50. Otsego County, Michigan

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 224 (+58 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 221 (+55 days from 2016)

#49. Preston County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+45 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+45 days from 2016)

#48. Wetzel County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+58 days from 2016)

#47. Geauga County, Ohio

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+49 days from 2016)

#46. Doddridge County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+61 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+63 days from 2016)

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#45. Erie County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+48 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 222 (+45 days from 2016)

#44. Franklin County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+39 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 224 (+38 days from 2016)

#43. Garrett County, Maryland

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+32 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+34 days from 2016)

#42. Ashtabula County, Ohio

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+54 days from 2016)

#41. Nicholas County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+56 days from 2016)

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#40. Potter County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+39 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+38 days from 2016)

#39. Tillamook County, Oregon

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+66 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 221 (+61 days from 2016)

#38. Genesee County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+52 days from 2016)

#37. Grays Harbor County, Washington

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+43 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+40 days from 2016)

#36. Lake County, Ohio

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+55 days from 2016)

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#35. Harrison County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+59 days from 2016)

#34. Oneida County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+61 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+61 days from 2016)

#33. Caledonia County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+56 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)

#32. Onondaga County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+56 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+55 days from 2016)

#31. Jefferson County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+62 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+60 days from 2016)

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#30. Barbour County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+56 days from 2016)

#29. Crawford County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 229 (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+52 days from 2016)

#28. Cortland County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+63 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+61 days from 2016)

#27. Clatsop County, Oregon

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+50 days from 2016)

#26. Coos County, New Hampshire

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+34 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+32 days from 2016)

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#25. Warren County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+64 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+62 days from 2016)

#24. Franklin County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+44 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+42 days from 2016)

#23. Webster County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 231 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 232 (+52 days from 2016)

#22. Jefferson County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 231 (+66 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+65 days from 2016)

#21. McKean County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 232 (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+51 days from 2016)

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#20. Herkimer County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+67 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 233 (+67 days from 2016)

#19. Cattaraugus County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+47 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+44 days from 2016)

#18. Hamilton County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+45 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 232 (+44 days from 2016)

#17. Madison County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+60 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+61 days from 2016)

#16. Upshur County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+44 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+47 days from 2016)

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#15. Wahkiakum County, Washington

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+25 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+20 days from 2016)

#14. Tucker County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+49 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+52 days from 2016)

#13. Clarion County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+70 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+69 days from 2016)

#12. Essex County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+46 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+45 days from 2016)

#11. Elk County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+62 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+61 days from 2016)

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#10. Chautauqua County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 236 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 233 (+48 days from 2016)

#9. Wyoming County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 237 (+48 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+45 days from 2016)

#8. Venango County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 238 (+64 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+63 days from 2016)

#7. Pacific County, Washington

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 238 (+32 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 235 (+29 days from 2016)

#6. Oswego County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 239 (+68 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 238 (+67 days from 2016)

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#5. Forest County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 239 (+65 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 238 (+64 days from 2016)

#4. Randolph County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 242 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 244 (+57 days from 2016)

#3. Lewis County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 243 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 242 (+56 days from 2016)

#2. Orleans County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 244 (+52 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 242 (+50 days from 2016)

#1. Lamoille County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 248 (+72 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 246 (+70 days from 2016)

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