rossograph // Wikimedia Commons
1 / 50#50. Otsego County, Michigan
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 224 (+58 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 221 (+55 days from 2016)
Counties projected to have the most extreme precipitation days in 2050
We all know that climate change affects temperature, but you may not realize that it also affects how much precipitation we get. As the Environmental Protection Agency explains, the higher the temperature of the ocean, the more water evaporates into the air. As it moves over land or potentially converges with a storm system, that moisture-laden air can produce more intense precipitation.
Across the country, heavy precipitation events are increasing—and are projected to continue doing so. More than 10 states set new 24-hour rainfall records in the 21st century, according to a 2024 report published by The Weather Channel, using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A June report from NOAA noted that the January–June precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. in 2024 was the 11th wettest in its 130-year record. The Upper Midwest, Northeast, and Deep South have all seen above-average rainfall, with a few states getting particularly high levels of precipitation. For Rhode Island, it's been the second-wettest year-to-date on record and the third-wettest for Minnesota and Wisconsin.
To determine how these numbers may shift in the future, Stacker set out to identify the U.S. counties that are expected to see the most extreme precipitation days in 2050 using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention & National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network. They use a 30-year rolling average to calculate the projected amount of days with extreme precipitation. These predictions were last updated in December of 2018.
Counties are ranked by low emission days of extreme precipitation in 2050. The number of extreme precipitation days is relative to days in a year, with the measure calculated annually and representing a 30-year rolling average.
Keep reading to see if your own home county is projected to be among those with the most extreme precipitation days in 2050.
Carol M. Highsmith // Wikimedia Commons
2 / 50#49. Preston County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+45 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+45 days from 2016)
Jon Dawson // Flickr
3 / 50#48. Wetzel County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+58 days from 2016)
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4 / 50#47. Geauga County, Ohio
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+49 days from 2016)
Tim Kiser // Wikimedia Commons
5 / 50#46. Doddridge County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+61 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+63 days from 2016)
John Tornow // Wikimedia Commons
6 / 50#45. Erie County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+48 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 222 (+45 days from 2016)
Mfwills // Wikimedia Commons
7 / 50#44. Franklin County, Vermont
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+39 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 224 (+38 days from 2016)
Cecouchman // Wikimedia Commons
8 / 50#43. Garrett County, Maryland
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+32 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+34 days from 2016)
Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons
9 / 50#42. Ashtabula County, Ohio
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+54 days from 2016)
Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons
10 / 50#41. Nicholas County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+56 days from 2016)
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11 / 50#40. Potter County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+39 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+38 days from 2016)
Rick Obst // Flickr
12 / 50#39. Tillamook County, Oregon
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+66 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 221 (+61 days from 2016)
Pollinator // Wikimedia Commons
13 / 50#38. Genesee County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+52 days from 2016)
Joe Mabel // Wikimedia Commons
14 / 50#37. Grays Harbor County, Washington
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+43 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+40 days from 2016)
Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons
15 / 50#36. Lake County, Ohio
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+55 days from 2016)
Upstateherd // Wikimedia Commons
16 / 50#35. Harrison County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+59 days from 2016)
Doug Kerr // Wikimedia Commons
17 / 50#34. Oneida County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+61 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+61 days from 2016)
AlexiusHoratius // Wikimedia Commons
18 / 50#33. Caledonia County, Vermont
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+56 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
Kenneth C. Zirkel // Wikimedia Commons
19 / 50#32. Onondaga County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+56 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+55 days from 2016)
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20 / 50#31. Jefferson County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+62 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+60 days from 2016)
Valerius Tygart // Wikimedia Commons
21 / 50#30. Barbour County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+56 days from 2016)
Michael Rivera // Wikimedia Commons
22 / 50#29. Crawford County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 229 (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+52 days from 2016)
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23 / 50#28. Cortland County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+63 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+61 days from 2016)
Ian Poellet // Wikimedia Commons
24 / 50#27. Clatsop County, Oregon
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+50 days from 2016)
Jon Platek // Wikimedia Commons
25 / 50#26. Coos County, New Hampshire
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+34 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+32 days from 2016)
Kenneth C. Zirkel // Wikimedia Commons
26 / 50#25. Warren County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+64 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+62 days from 2016)
Mwanner // Wikimedia Commons
27 / 50#24. Franklin County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+44 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+42 days from 2016)
Tim Kiser // Wikimedia Commons
28 / 50#23. Webster County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 231 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 232 (+52 days from 2016)
Nicholas A. Tonelli // Wikimedia Commons
29 / 50#22. Jefferson County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 231 (+66 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+65 days from 2016)
Nicholas // Wikimedia Commons
30 / 50#21. McKean County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 232 (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+51 days from 2016)
Kenneth C. Zirkel // Wikimedia Commons
31 / 50#20. Herkimer County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+67 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 233 (+67 days from 2016)
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32 / 50#19. Cattaraugus County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+47 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+44 days from 2016)
Doug Kerr // Wikimedia Commons
33 / 50#18. Hamilton County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+45 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 232 (+44 days from 2016)
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34 / 50#17. Madison County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+60 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+61 days from 2016)
Tim Kiser // Wikimedia Commons
35 / 50#16. Upshur County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+44 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+47 days from 2016)
Walter Siegmund // Wikimedia Commons
36 / 50#15. Wahkiakum County, Washington
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+25 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+20 days from 2016)
Famartin // Wikimedia Commons
37 / 50#14. Tucker County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+49 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+52 days from 2016)
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38 / 50#13. Clarion County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+70 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+69 days from 2016)
Daniel Case // Wikimedia Commons
39 / 50#12. Essex County, Vermont
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+46 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+45 days from 2016)
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40 / 50#11. Elk County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+62 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+61 days from 2016)
Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons
41 / 50#10. Chautauqua County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 236 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 233 (+48 days from 2016)
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42 / 50#9. Wyoming County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 237 (+48 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+45 days from 2016)
Finetooth // Wikimedia Commons
43 / 50#8. Venango County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 238 (+64 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+63 days from 2016)
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44 / 50#7. Pacific County, Washington
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 238 (+32 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 235 (+29 days from 2016)
Doug Kerr // Flickr
45 / 50#6. Oswego County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 239 (+68 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 238 (+67 days from 2016)
Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons
46 / 50#5. Forest County, Pennsylvania
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 239 (+65 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 238 (+64 days from 2016)
Famartin // Wikimedia Commons
47 / 50#4. Randolph County, West Virginia
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 242 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 244 (+57 days from 2016)
Steven Pavlov // Wikimedia Commons
48 / 50#3. Lewis County, New York
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 243 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 242 (+56 days from 2016)
John Jewell // Flickr
49 / 50#2. Orleans County, Vermont
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 244 (+52 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 242 (+50 days from 2016)
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50 / 50#1. Lamoille County, Vermont
Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 248 (+72 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 246 (+70 days from 2016)
