Counties projected to have the most extreme precipitation days in 2050

Written by:
March 2, 2021
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Counties projected to have the most extreme precipitation days in 2050

Climate change will not just affect temperature, it will also affect how much precipitation towns, counties, states, and countries receive. Wet regions are projected by the National Climate Assessment to generally become wetter, with rising overall air and water temperatures increasing heavy downpours across the U.S., according to the Fourth National Climate Assessment. Studies widely show that across the country, heavy precipitation events are increasing—and projected to continue doing so.

Over the last century, there has been a 10% increase in annual precipitation in Pennsylvania, for example, with experts predicting a continued increase in precipitation and flooding through mid-century. By 2050, precipitation in Pennsylvania is expected to increase by 8% annually, with 14% of that occurring in winter. Average annual precipitation in New York has similarly increased since 1900; throughout the 21st century, winter precipitation in the state is projected to continue to rise while higher temperatures mean more rain and less snow.

To determine which U.S. counties will see the most extreme precipitation days in 2050, Stacker consulted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention & National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network, which uses a 30-year rolling average to calculate the projected amount of days with extreme precipitation. These predictions were last updated in December of 2018.

Counties are ranked by low emission days of extreme precipitation in 2050. The number of extreme precipitation days is relative to days in a year, with the measure calculated annually and representing a 30-year rolling average.

Keep reading to see if your own home county is projected to be among those with the most extreme precipitation days in 2050.

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rossograph // Wikimedia Commons

#50. Otsego County, Michigan

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 224 (+58 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 221 (+55 days from 2016)

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Carol M. Highsmith // Wikimedia Commons

#49. Preston County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+45 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+45 days from 2016)

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Jon Dawson // Flickr

#48. Wetzel County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+58 days from 2016)

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#47. Geauga County, Ohio

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+49 days from 2016)

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Tim Kiser // Wikimedia Commons

#46. Doddridge County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+61 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+63 days from 2016)

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John Tornow // Wikimedia Commons

#45. Erie County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+48 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 222 (+45 days from 2016)

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Mfwills // Wikimedia Commons

#44. Franklin County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+39 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 224 (+38 days from 2016)

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Cecouchman // Wikimedia Commons

#43. Garrett County, Maryland

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 225 (+32 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+34 days from 2016)

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Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons

#42. Ashtabula County, Ohio

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+54 days from 2016)

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Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons

#41. Nicholas County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+56 days from 2016)

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#40. Potter County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+39 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+38 days from 2016)

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Rick Obst // Flickr

#39. Tillamook County, Oregon

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+66 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 221 (+61 days from 2016)

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Pollinator // Wikimedia Commons

#38. Genesee County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+52 days from 2016)

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Joe Mabel // Wikimedia Commons

#37. Grays Harbor County, Washington

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 226 (+43 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 223 (+40 days from 2016)

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Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons

#36. Lake County, Ohio

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+55 days from 2016)

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Upstateherd // Wikimedia Commons

#35. Harrison County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+59 days from 2016)

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Doug Kerr // Wikimedia Commons

#34. Oneida County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+61 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+61 days from 2016)

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AlexiusHoratius // Wikimedia Commons

#33. Caledonia County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 227 (+56 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+55 days from 2016)

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Kenneth C. Zirkel // Wikimedia Commons

#32. Onondaga County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+56 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 227 (+55 days from 2016)

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#31. Jefferson County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+62 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 226 (+60 days from 2016)

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Valerius Tygart // Wikimedia Commons

#30. Barbour County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 228 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+56 days from 2016)

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Michael Rivera // Wikimedia Commons

#29. Crawford County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 229 (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+52 days from 2016)

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#28. Cortland County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+63 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+61 days from 2016)

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Ian Poellet // Wikimedia Commons

#27. Clatsop County, Oregon

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 225 (+50 days from 2016)

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Jon Platek // Wikimedia Commons

#26. Coos County, New Hampshire

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+34 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+32 days from 2016)

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Kenneth C. Zirkel // Wikimedia Commons

#25. Warren County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+64 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+62 days from 2016)

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Mwanner // Wikimedia Commons

#24. Franklin County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 230 (+44 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 228 (+42 days from 2016)

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Tim Kiser // Wikimedia Commons

#23. Webster County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 231 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 232 (+52 days from 2016)

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Nicholas A. Tonelli // Wikimedia Commons

#22. Jefferson County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 231 (+66 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+65 days from 2016)

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Nicholas // Wikimedia Commons

#21. McKean County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 232 (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+51 days from 2016)

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Kenneth C. Zirkel // Wikimedia Commons

#20. Herkimer County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+67 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 233 (+67 days from 2016)

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#19. Cattaraugus County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+47 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 230 (+44 days from 2016)

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Doug Kerr // Wikimedia Commons

#18. Hamilton County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+45 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 232 (+44 days from 2016)

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#17. Madison County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 233 (+60 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+61 days from 2016)

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Tim Kiser // Wikimedia Commons

#16. Upshur County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+44 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+47 days from 2016)

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Walter Siegmund // Wikimedia Commons

#15. Wahkiakum County, Washington

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+25 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 229 (+20 days from 2016)

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Famartin // Wikimedia Commons

#14. Tucker County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 234 (+49 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+52 days from 2016)

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#13. Clarion County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+70 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+69 days from 2016)

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Daniel Case // Wikimedia Commons

#12. Essex County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+46 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+45 days from 2016)

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#11. Elk County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 235 (+62 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+61 days from 2016)

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Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons

#10. Chautauqua County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 236 (+51 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 233 (+48 days from 2016)

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#9. Wyoming County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 237 (+48 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 234 (+45 days from 2016)

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Finetooth // Wikimedia Commons

#8. Venango County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 238 (+64 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 237 (+63 days from 2016)

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#7. Pacific County, Washington

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 238 (+32 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 235 (+29 days from 2016)

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Doug Kerr // Flickr

#6. Oswego County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 239 (+68 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 238 (+67 days from 2016)

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Nyttend // Wikimedia Commons

#5. Forest County, Pennsylvania

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 239 (+65 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 238 (+64 days from 2016)

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Famartin // Wikimedia Commons

#4. Randolph County, West Virginia

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 242 (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 244 (+57 days from 2016)

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Steven Pavlov // Wikimedia Commons

#3. Lewis County, New York

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 243 (+57 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 242 (+56 days from 2016)

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John Jewell // Flickr

#2. Orleans County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 244 (+52 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 242 (+50 days from 2016)

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#1. Lamoille County, Vermont

Projected days of extreme precipitation in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 248 (+72 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 246 (+70 days from 2016)

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